Friday, March 21, 2014

AMZN Feb 2014

AMZN



Entry :
Bearish candle, volume picking up.
Debit put spread as IV rank was low.
Hit resistance and came down. Eyeing it to hit $340 support.

Long 345/350 mar 14 debit put spread @ 2.36

Exit : 
Hit almost max loss and 1 DTE

P&L : ($234) + ($5) commission

Review :

  • halfway through there's tiny profit of $20-$30 didn't take, end up it became a loser and never look back again.
  • break above resistance but didn't want to cut.
  • Could have close off and short after breakout as it may test the support.
  • Debit spread time is not on my side. short term, get out quick with profit.
  • Even if the direction was right, still losing as theta effect kicks in, delta move not strong enough to offset theta lost
  • IV rank went lower
  • Look to long at support around 365, upcoming bullish weeks

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

WAT70



Card Mechanics - Richard Tuner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWcm2JDT4lQ

Adam Khoo 10,000hrs - http://www.adam-khoo.com/1397/there-is-no-talent-without-hardwork/

Quote : Rome wasn't build in 1 day.
Start Small, Daily -



Monday, December 09, 2013

Riot at Little India

Date : 8 Dec 2013, 9:23pm

Riot at little India - junction of Race Course Road and Hempshire Road.

What spark of the incident ?
Apparently, a private bus driver knock down a Bangladesh worker and somehow it ignited the aggression of others around.

Passerby started to throw things at the bus.

Cars, including a police car was turned over, and there has been mentions that an ambulance was set on fire.

Mob hostile move against police vehicle at little india, overturn the police vehicle
http://youtu.be/OdSzjj39Et0
Please be safe those policeman, paramedics, fireman deployed to the incident at little india.

Burning vehicle - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9wTo7Wc3z8

Riot Police in action, Little India - frm Todayonline
Riot police was activated to contain the situation. 
A video footage of burning vehicles uploaded by residence nearby.

tweets on the incident

Monday, November 18, 2013

Market Opinion - Week 45



Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 Nov ~  22 Nov 2013

Have fun trading !~


Indexes
DJIA start : 15761 end : 15961 change : 199.92 %change : 1.3% YTD % : 21.8
Nasdaq start : 3919 end : 3985 change : 66.74 %change : 1.7% YTD % : 32.0
S&P start : 1770 end : 1798 change : 27.57 %change : 1.6% YTD % : 26.1
Rusell start : 1099 end : 1116 change : 16.23 %change : 1.5% YTD % : 31.4

Volume

Recap on last week
Week closed at  180.12 UP from previous week of 177.12

With fed continuing it's current stance of buying bonds; festive season around the corner; portfolio pumping and fund house having pressure to outperform the indexes before the year come to an end. There's definitely more thrust upside, but who will be the last to catch the hot potato.


VIX are really at a complacence level that it went below 13 points on Fri before picking up and closing above 13

Accuracy : 11/25

Market



November Trivia
  • The first day has seen the DOW go down 5 of the last 8
  • Sunday 3 November – Daylight Saving Time Ends
  • Monday 4 November US Equity Markets will open at 22:30 hours (SG, MY)
  • The first two weeks of November tends to be bullish
  • The Monday of Expiration Week has been down on the DOW 8 of the last 14
  • November Expiration Friday has been up on the DOW 9 of the last 11
  • The week before Thanksgiving has seen the DOW go up 15 of the last 19
  • The last week of the months is typically bullish
  • November 28 is Thanksgiving Day – Markets are closed
  • The last trading day of November is usually bearish. However, the S&P has been up 5 of the last 6
Commodities
  • Oil continues its decline
  • Nat Gas depends on climate changes to determine its direction in November
  • Gold turns upward in mid month (but tends to come down sharply early in December)
  • Silver starts its annual run up the charts around the same time as Gold (This long trade is good till February)
  • Copper continues its weakness
  • Soya tops out in mid month
  • Wheat tops out in the first week
  • Corn starts strengthening
  • Cocoa bottoms early in the month and reverses upward after the first week (This long trade is good till Christmas)
  • Coffee demand picks up in November but prices don’t make a significant rally yet
  • Sugar tops out and consolidates at the top


Sectors

With Discretionary and Healthcare leading over 2%. 

Commodities, Currency, Bonds - CCB




Economic Data




Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :
CRM, HD, BBY, DE, JCP, LOW, GMCR, GME, TGT, ANF, GPS, MRVL, P



Psychology


Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Looks like it's hitting a resistance around 180. But it's only a matter of time before it break over.


Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
When the market is fearful, be greedy, when the market is greedy, be fearful. The market is on extreme greed and complacency who will the be ones to pay for the hefty price.


Opinion of the Market : Up

Monday, September 23, 2013

Market Opinion - Trading Week #37



Market Opinion for Trading Week 23 Sep ~  27 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~
SPY - 5 Days
Indexes

Volume

Recap on last week
Week closed at  170.72 UP from previous week of 169.33

Market are like on steroid bumping higher and higher until Thurs. It should come down when its overbought but some out there just buying it higher as if pushing it's limit. We are in the month supposedly bearish month and going into Oct which major crash happened. The YTD gains are indicating a huge room for reversion to mean. While we all waited like it should have retrace abit when its way overbought just like when you sprint for a short burst, the body will take a break to recuperate. Apparently external factor like fed decisions are swaying directly and indirectly. How the control on money supply have almost the power of god as it affect almost everyone on earth directly and indirectly.

For S&P 500 YTD gain is 19.9%, or SPY price at 170
By printing more money to buy treasury bonds, money value depreciated.
ie in the past 1 bond cost 1 dollar, as there's more supply of money, now 1 bond cost 2 dollar.

Applying the same, maybe SPY value cost 140, due to the adjustment in money supply, it got inflated and cost 170 now. Under normal rate, it probably take a couple more years maybe 5-10 years to hit 280 but due to the rate of adjustment on money supply, couple more years might just be shorten significantly. We shall see how fast it hit.

If you notice, all the little expenditure that we are paying are rising in price some at a incredible rate. ie just 2 weeks back, i bought a double cheese burger at mac for $2.6, 1 week before that it was at $2.5 i doubt how many people will actually notice the 10 cents different. But that 10 cents is a 4% increase in cost for consumer, now we are talking right ? We don't even have 1% interest on bank saving account or how many funds out there are averaging a 4% returns ? The point is money value is becoming smaller and we need even more to buy for the same items aka inflation at a certain rate. But if someone else come into the picture from behind the scene, printing more and more money. It just became a body that is heavily reliance on drugs and to make it worst, this body can create drugs whenever it like.



2 keys things - Capitalism & Debts that i learnt from "mens who build america" and "Rothschild" are seemly amazing.



VIX are really at a complacence level that it went below 13 points on Fri before picking up and closing above 13

Accuracy : 11/25

Market


Trivia For September
  • Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
  • The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
  • The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
  • The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
  • Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
  • Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
  • Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
  • Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
  • September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
  • The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
  • Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
  • The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15
Commodities
  • Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
  • Nat Gas continues its strength till October
  • Gold and Silver tops out in September
  • Copper consolidates and turns down
  • Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
  • Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
  • Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
  • Coffee tops out in the first week of September
  • Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Sectors
9 Sectors
With industrial , material and utilities leading and Energy lagging.

Commodities, Currency, Bonds - CCB






Economic Data




Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical

SPY - Daily


ATR : 1.53
Avg Volume : 113.64M down from last last week of 127.64M
Volume : 19,759,852 down from last last week of 129,552,384

Zone Probability

Range :

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
consolidation to take a breather which might give an false indication of a dip on the downside. After all it just get higher and higher as long as fed is gonna continue printing. On the other side, we are going into month of Oct and if we really just look at candlestick only, it seems a higher probability to have a downwards dip.

Pattern



Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
When the market is fearful, be greedy, when the market is greedy, be fearful


Opinion of the Market : down

Monday, September 09, 2013

Market Opinion - Trading Week #35



Market Opinion for Trading Week 9 Sep ~ 13 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~
SPY - 5 Days


Recap on last week
Week closed at  166.04 UP from previous week of 163.65.

Nasdaq have been bumping up last week, was expecting 3 Sep, first trading in Sep after labour to be up after the long weekend. But it just went the exact opposite. Trading days after the first trading day following labour day tends to be bearish which again it went exactly opposite. Except for the quick sell down on Fri, 6 Sep open.

Remind me of something i learnt over the weekend, when the trend or majority of the ppl out there know about certain things, the probability of it happening the opposite way tends to happen quickly.


VIX - daily

VIX closed at 15.86 

Accuracy : 11/24

Market

Major indexes still outperforming by alot compare to the average thus there might be alot of room for a correction in the up coming mths.

DJI : -1.33%
SPX : -1.84% 
NDX : -1.86%
RUT : -2.63%


162 will probably be tested this week or next. The next strong support base on the price volume. If it manage to break below 162 zone, pressure will be added to go for 159. and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

Trivia For September
  • Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
  • The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
  • The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
  • The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
  • Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
  • Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
  • Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
  • Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
  • September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
  • The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
  • Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
  • The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15
Commodities
  • Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
  • Nat Gas continues its strength till October
  • Gold and Silver tops out in September
  • Copper consolidates and turns down
  • Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
  • Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
  • Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
  • Coffee tops out in the first week of September
  • Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds


NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data



Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical



ATR : 1.49 from 1.34 last week
Avg Volume : 127.64M down from last week of 128.97M
Volume : 129,552,384 from last week of 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 159 to 167

Psychology


Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
strong momentum still on the bear side. Almost overwhelming.

Pattern



Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Hedge more


Opinion of the Market : down

Thursday, September 05, 2013

War is profitable, as is oil (hard facts to swallow)

Syria


surrounding - bordering Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea to the West, Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south and Israel to the southwest.

Syria Government suspected use of chemical weapons sarin gas 21 Aug


Videos


US intelligence map of areas reportedly affected by 21 August chemical attack
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23927399



Obama Works On Strategy For Syria
Obama to go ahead with strike regardless of congress decision
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/09/01/obama-leaving-door-open-to-syria-strike-even-if-congress-votes-no/

Emotion fuel with 9/11



" Senate drafted a bipartisan measure Tuesday that imposed a 90-day deadline for American military intervention in Syria and barred the use of US troops on the ground there."
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-senate-measure-has-90/801264.html
Highly likely to use long range missile such as tomahawks.

limited and punitive strike may snowball into something even bigger, Syria and it's allies, what are the chances they will sit there and do nothing...

Strike on Syria Would Lead to Retaliation on Israel, Iran Warns
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/29/world/middleeast/syria-iran-israel.html?_r=0

"Iran, Russia, South Africa and some Arab countries have rejected this aggression and are ready to face this war that the United States and its allies, including France, will declare against Syria", he said, without elaborating " 

An retaliation attack on US interest or the NATO nations would call for a chance of stance. 

This could all turn into a full blown extended warfare.

Reading deeper US military is the largest consumer of petroleum in the world. In one respect, the war machine acts to preserve its own supply of oil without which it could not function, whatever the reserves in the US and elsewhere.

Middle East is a complex area -- filled with its own internal factions of religious, political and ethnic identities -- but the mission of the US empire is to play whatever "Great Game" is necessary to ensure that these conflicts don't get in the way of the free flow of oil

war is necessary (at least four of them in the Middle East, if we include Syria, since 2000) to preserve the national security economic interests of the United States -- and a steady fuel supply for the US armed forces.
http://truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/item/18175-what-congress-will-be-voting-on-is-another-war-not-a-limited-punitive-strike


The weapon of choice in the U.S. arsenal against Syria would likely be the Tomahawk cruise missile, manufactured by Raytheon Co 

White House has made clear an attack on Syria would be very limited in nature, likely relying heavily on the cruise missiles that Raytheon sells to the U.S. for about $1.45 million a pop tactical version.



After Tomahawk missiles were deployed during the U.S. intervention in Libya’s civil war, the Navy was forced to increase production of the weapons.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2013/08/30/clash-with-syria-could-be-windfall-for-tomahawk-missile-maker-raytheon/

Tomahawks Missiles General Dynamics in the 1970s, it was initially designed as a medium to long-range, low-altitude missile that could be launched from a surface platform. It has been improved several times and, due to corporate divestitures and acquisitions, is now made by Raytheon. Some Tomahawks were also manufactured by McDonnell Douglas (now Boeing Defense, Space & Security)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)

RTN & BA



Market reaction on previous Airstrike 
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/9-stock-market-reactions-to-major-airstrikes-2013-08-29



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