Market Opinion - Trading Week #34

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Sep ~ 6 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 163.65 down from previous week of 166.62. Mon open high to buffer in for the price drop throughout the rest of the week. I thought the almanac data would have a high probability as it mentioned about 2 last trading day of Aug tends to be bullish, I was thinking reason being anticipation into the 3 days holiday weekend into labour's day.

VIX hitting 17 and almost to 18 at one point forming a shooting star pattern. Fear is building up and will it come down as per the pattern. Divergence.

Accuracy : 11/23

Market

Major indexes still outperforming by alot compare to the average thus there might be alot of room for a correction in the up coming mths.

DJI : -1.33%

SPX : -1.84% 

NDX : -1.86%

RUT : -2.63%

162 will probably be tested this week or next. The next strong support base on the price volume. If it manage to break below 162 zone, pressure will be added to go for 159. and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

Trivia For September

• Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
• The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
• The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
• Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
• Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
• Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
• Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
• September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
• The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
• Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
• The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15

Commodities

• Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
• Nat Gas continues its strength till October
• Gold and Silver tops out in September
• Copper consolidates and turns down
• Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
• Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
• Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
• Coffee tops out in the first week of September
• Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical

ATR : 1.49 from 1.34 last week

Avg Volume : 127.64M down from last week of 128.97M
Volume : 129,552,384 from last week of 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 159 to 167

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
strong momentum still on the bear side. Almost overwhelming.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Hedge more


Opinion of the Market : down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #33

Market Opinion for Trading Week 26 Aug ~ 24 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.62 up from previous week of 165.83

VIX hit 16.

Accuracy : 11/22

Market

167 will be a strong resistance base on the price volume. If it manage to break above and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

Commodities

Sectors

9 Sectors - 3 Months

9 Sectors - Weekly

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data

Not much on Jackson hole meeting.

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF)
Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB)
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM)
Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF-B)
Joy Global (NYSE: JOY)
Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM)

Technical

ATR : 1.34 from 1.3 last week

Avg Volume : 128.97M from 132.75M
Volume : 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 163.7 to 170.60

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Bulls pushing back to hold the price or short seller covering. Bears are taking a short breather.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Volumes are dropping. Probably more sitting on the sideline watching.


Opinion of the Market next week : sideways with little upside

Google Adsense Cheque

Towards the end of Jul, I made a deposit of google adsense cheque payment. But after almost 3 weeks, I have yet to receive the credit transaction on my bank account.

Call up the bank and found out that google adsense cheque take 3weeks or more to clear and charge a $10 or 0.125% of amt transaction fee if it's in USD payment.

To resolve that, choose either 1 or 2

1) Change the payment to western union
2) change your payment currency to the local currency

Market Opinion - Trading Week #32

Market Opinion for Trading Week 19 Aug ~ 23 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 165.83 - down from the previous week of 169.31 

Yes it did but not much downside, this may attract the short seller to come in to continue some short dip.

They came and its gotten volatile with VIX picking up.  

Accuracy : 11/21

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

No data on Mon and Tue. Majority of the market probably waiting for fomc minutes to do short term reaction.

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

ATR : 1.3

Volume : 132.75M

No go zone
Anything not higher than 172.33 and not lower than 159.33

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Bears are in control and the bulls are waiting...

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

While most of the ppl are having bearish sentiment for one of the most bearish month of the year. Big boys probably do more whipsaw movement between 168 to 171.

The price tanked and now the bulls commitment gonna be test at 165. Which could be the pivot point to do the whipsaw ranges for big boys.


KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : sideways to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #31

Market Opinion for Trading Week 12 Aug ~ 16 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 169.31 down from the previous week of 170.95.

Is it a true breakout, will it hold at 170 which is a big round number ? Or it's a wash and rinse on the top side.

Yes it did but not much downside, this may attract the short seller to come in to continue some short dip.

Accuracy : 10/20

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  ! While most of the ppl are having bearish sentiment for one of the most bearish month of the year. Big boys probably do more whipsaw movement between 168 to 171.



KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #30

Market Opinion for Trading Week 5 Aug ~ 9 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 days

Week closed at 170.95 up from previous week of 169.11.

Is it a true breakout, will it hold at 170 which is a big round number ? Or it's a wash and rinse on the top side.

Accuracy : 9/19

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

SPY - Daily

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  ! People looking to buy at support of 170, push it up a little before rinsing down to collect the stops.

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #29

Market Opinion for Trading Week 29 Jul ~ 2 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 169.11, up from previous week of 169.17.

Not much move at all as if all the traders/investors went for their summer break.

Accuracy : 9/18

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

SPY - Daily

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

SPY - Monthly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle
Tobacco Trade

Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #28

Market Opinion for Trading Week 22 Jul ~ 26 Jul 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 169.17, up from previous week of 167.51

Accuracy : 9/17

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #25

Market Opinion for Trading Week 1 Jul ~ 4 Jul 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 160.42, up from previous week of 159.07.

Accuracy : 8/16

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up