SPY 12 Jan 2012

Before market open,

1. SPY TA - Channel Support and Strong Support/Resistance line at 128.50 ; ascending triangle breakout ; Next S/R level at 130
2. Marketwatch - Major headline news of revise unemployment claims hitting close to 400,000
3. Forexfactory - Bearish Economic data - retail sales : below expectation ; unemployment claims above expectation. 

Sentiment : Pretty 'jing' aka swelling. Standby for bearish reaction

TOS : 

1. Open SPY option chain to look for 2 Put contract
2. Set stop loss
3. Drew additional support/resistance lines on 1min candles chart
4. Added previous trading day, open, high, low, close
5. Remind myself on the 2 rules

• Never buy the high, never short the low
• Wait for confirm trend

Indeed the market reacted to the economic data, within the first 15min a trend was form and thought it could be entry for me (first blue circle). Held my click, why ? I was wary to trade the first 15 min when the market opened. While I was wary and thinking, I was too late, notice the huge red candle. [The bull climb up the stairs and Bear jump of the window]. Remind myself that there will be another opportunity.

Waited for the second opportunity (second blue circle) , once it break out the support line, I was ready to make an entry but did not get a fill. It was a clear overrun by the bears as the buyers for the PUT options does a big leap. Up my ASK price once , damn when it move down, it move real fast. [It was a psychology battle once again when the direction become so clear and you don't want to miss the opportunity - the temptation to chase the price again was challenging ] Decided to stick to the plan of chasing only once plus it's reaching the strong support of 128.50. Man I m glad that I stick to the plan as it went sideway for a period.

Somewhere around the 3rd blue circle, I thought it could be a start of a uptrend so standby my CALL option. But it just doesn't want to break above the S/R zone. Shortly after that constipation, bearish candles come into play and I switched back to PUT option. Made an entry again on the (2nd orange circle) but did not get a fill. [Everything happen for a reason - that's it for the day and closed my platform]

Ratio : 4/4

SPY 11 Jan 2012

Attended WAT Coaches briefing yesterday and did not trade. Manage to keep the discipline today and do it =)

Before market open

1. TA on SPY - strong support at 128.50 back tracing from Aug 2011 breakout to the south; still on channel support ; ascending triangle breakout ; previous trading day isn't a real bull, got pushed up went sideway.
2. Marketwatch headlines - nothing major
3. Forexfactory - No major economic data 

Sentiment : A little bearish correction to the downside

TOS : 

1. Open SPY option chain to look for 2 Put contract
2. Set stop lost 
3. Drew additional support/resistance lines on 1min candles chart
4. Added previous trading day, open, high, low, close
5. Remind myself on the 2 rules

• Never buy the high, never short the low
• Wait for confirm trend

Saw an opportunity for an entry at the orange circle - bearish engulfing. Buyers sudden rush. Waited for next candle to confirm. Clicked Buy and didn't get a fill. Thought of chasing the price once but it just went too fast before I can react. So chill myself and told myself that there's always another opportunity. At the same time that kind of psychology I have to manage -you know you are got the right direction and didn't get a fill and the price just went nicely along your direction.

Invited my friend [Patience]

SPY finding it's support at 128.50 zone. Prepare myself for bullish entry.


I was presented with another opportunity -  blue circle. Both rules fulfilled, waited for the next candle and bang a pretty bullish one. Clicked Buy. Filled.


Checked on MACD,
On 1 min chart - MACD blue line above red (probably take a while for MACD traders to come in)
On 3 min chart - MACD start to form crossover

It climb slowly as I waited. Smaller wave make bigger wave. 

Next, prepare to sell

• Hit $5 profit sell 1, trail 1 for $0.05
• Profit : $18 | Net P/L : Profit - Commission = $18 - ($1.25 X 2 ) X 2 contracts) = $13

Retrospect

Orange - BTO 2 contracts
Blue - STC 1 contract and trail stop 1 contract
Red - Got trail stopped

Ratio :  4/4

SPY 9 Jan 2012

Before Market Open

1. Check Marketwatch for Headline news
2. TA for SPY - pretty constipated movement from Fri, support at 127 and resistance at 128.50. Diagonal Support and potential breakout of ascending triangle
3. Forexfactory - CAD building permit lesser than forecast

Sentiment : sideway to the upside 

TOS

1. Open SPY option chain to look for 2 Call contract
2. Set stop lost 
3. Drew additional support/resistance lines on 1min candles chart
4. Added previous trading day, open, high, low, close
5. Remind myself on the 2 rules

• Never buy the high, never short the low
• Wait for confirm trend

Once again another test of waiting, noticed that the shadow were pretty long on the bottom and top of candles as if telling me that there was no direction in the market. 

After around 10 am (US time), if it break below the support line then lets go for a Put option, opened up the option chain and standby the put option. A few seconds later, a potential double bottom showed up. Waited for it to breakout. And yes! Saw the bullish piercing candle and clicked ! buy (orange circle).

Checked on MACD, 

On 1 min chart - MACD red line enter bullish half

On 3 min chart - MACD blue line enter bullish half

Next, prepare to sell

• Hit $5 profit sell 1, trail 1 for $0.05
• Profit : $10 | Net P/L : Profit - Commission = $10 - ($1.25 X 2 ) X 2 contracts) = $5

Retrospect

Ratio : 3/3

SPY Scalp - 26 Aug 2011

Budget : $1000
No. of Contract : 2
Profit Target : $20 or $0.10 per option (profit take half when option hit $0.10;  trail stop $0.10)
Stop Loss : $20 or $0.20 per option

Trade #1
Profit : $25
Comm : $5
Net Profit/Loss : $20


Trade #2
Profit : $40
Comm : $5
Net Profit/Loss : -($45)


Trade #3
Profit : $39
Comm : $5
Net Profit/Loss : $34


Total Net Profit/Loss : $9

Daily Market Analysis - Wednesday 17 August, 2011

Tuesday 16 August, 2011 - AMC

Dow Jones Index

11,405.93 -76.97 (-0.67%)

Range 11,292.63 - 11,488.01

52 week 9,936.62 - 12,876.00

Open 11,480.48

Vol. 187.80M

NASDAQ 

2,523.45 -31.75 (-1.24%)

Range 2,494.55 - 2,546.74

52 week 2,099.29 - 2,887.75

Open 2,526.48

Vol. 2.01B

S&P 500

1,192.76 -11.73(-0.97%)

Range 1,180.53 - 1,204.22

52 week 1,039.70 - 1,370.58

Open 1,204.22

Vol. 871.87M

RUSELL

704.76 -13.87 (-1.93%)

Range 698.26 - 718.59

52 week 588.58 - 868.57

Open 711.27

Vol. 0.00

Tuesday 16 August, 2011 Economic Data

Tue Aug 16	8:30am	USD		Building Permits		0.60M	0.61M	0.62M
	8:30am	USD		Housing Starts		0.60M	0.60M	0.61M
	8:30am	USD		Import Prices m/m		0.3%	0.0%	-0.6%
	9:15am	USD		Capacity Utilization Rate		77.5%	77.0%	76.9%
	9:15am	USD		Industrial Production m/m		0.9%	0.5%	0.4%

Sectors Performance

Utilities sector been performing well for the past week. It's like a contrarian indicator of the market when there's fear, people buy into one of the safe bet utilities. Thus this sector tends to do well, will it continue to do well ?

Finance sector at the bottom of the table.

Check this economic model from sam stovall

Early Recession 

This is where things start to go bad for the overall economy. Consumer expectations are at their worst, industrial production is falling, interest rates are at their highest[still at 0 to 0.25 % till mid 2013], and the yield curve is flat or even inverted.[curve been flattening especially the past 2 weeks] Historically, the following sectors have found favor during these rough times:

Services (near the beginning)

Utilities

Cyclicals and transports (near the end)

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020305.asp#ixzz1VH1y2Xwz

PS: article that talks about economic cycle - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020305.asp#axzz1VH1XiHAL

What move the market 

• Germany and France officials offer proposals for eurozone common government, not immediate plans to address ongoing challenges
• GDP data from Germany and broader eurozone disappoint
• Fitch reaffirms AAA rating on US, and considers the outlook stable
• Housing starts and building permits slow more than expected in July
• Industrial production jumps more than expected in July

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/markets/stock-market-update/#ixzz1VH5LRjmP

Commodities

Treasury Yield

Notable Earnings

Wal-Mart 2nd-quarter net up 5.7%(7:25 am ET) TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., (WMT: news, chart, profile) the world's largest retailer, reported fiscal second-quarter net income rose 5.7% on 5.4% higher net revenue and flat same-store sales. For the quarter ended July 31, net income reached $3.8 billion from $3.6 billion. Earnings per share were $1.09 against 97 cents. Special items cut a net 3 cents a share from the latest quarter's profit, Wal-Mart said in a Tuesday statement. Net sales rose 5.5% to $108.64 billion; adding in membership fees, net revenue rose 5.4% to $109.37 billion. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced consensus estimates of $1.08 a share of profit on $108.1 billion of revenue. Wal-Mart's U.S. comparable-store sales fell 0.9%. For the fiscal third quarter, Wal-Mart expects continuing operations to generate profit of 95 cents to $1 a share. In the year-earlier third period, WMT earned 95 cents, including a 5-cent tax benefit. FactSet's survey is looking for 97 cents a share. For the fiscal year, Wal-Mart expects to earn $4.41 to $4.51 a share. FactSet's survey is eyeing $4.46. (Adds outlook.)

Home Depot net beats estimate; outlook raised(6:19 am ET) TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- Home Depot Inc., (HD: news, chart, profile) the Atlanta home-improvement chain, reported fiscal-second-quarter net income rose 14% on 4.2% higher net sales and 4.3% higher comparable-store sales. For the quarter ended July 31, profit reached $1.36 billion from $1.19 billion in the year-earlier period. Earnings per share were 86 cents against 72 cents. Shares outstanding fell 5.2% to 1.58 billion. Sales rose to $20.23 billion from $19.41 billion. A survey of analysts by FactSet Research produced a consensus estimate of profit of 83 cents a share on revenue of $19.97 billion. The company raised its outlook for the year and now expects continuing operations to generate profit of $2.34 a share. FactSet's survey is looking for $2.30.

Technical Updates

Wednesday 17 August, 2011 BMO

Wednesday 17 August, 2011 Economic Data 

Wed Aug 17	8:30am	USD		PPI m/m			0.0%	-0.4%
	8:30am	USD		Core PPI m/m			0.2%	0.3%
	10:30am	USD		Crude Oil Inventories			-0.4M	-5.2M

What Does Producer Price Index - PPI Mean?
A family of indexes that measures the average change in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services over time. PPIs measure price change from the perspective of the seller.

Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/ppi.asp#ixzz1VHI9Inzi

News

The leaders of France and Germany called Tuesday for greater economic discipline and unity among European nations but declined to take immediate financial measures seen by many investors as the only way to halt the continent's spiraling debt crisis.

Dell cuts guidance, showing industry uncertainty

Earnings

The blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 2Q 2011, combining actual numbers for companies that have reported, and estimates for companies yet to report slightly rose to 11.9% from 11.8% in the previous day. As of April 1st, the earnings growth rate was at 13.3%.
Of the 466 (93%) S&P 500 companies who have reported 2Q earnings, 71% beat estimates, 9% were in-line, and 20% were below estimates. The estimated earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for 3Q 2011 is currently at 15.7%. (Data provided by Thomson Reuters)

Almanac 

-No statistics

Summary

-I m still bearish on long term. Just saw an video from Walter Zimmermann, United-ICAP chief technical analyst saying we could possibly see  S&P500 hit 570 !!! I think it might be bad but not that bad ouch, that half of current S&P level. According to him, we could be in a repeat of 2007 to 2009.

On technical, SPX seem to hit Fibonacci of 61.8% (slightly over but if you use body to body candle its exactly at 61.8%). Also there a resistance level at 1204

Plus my wall street bull drop off from my vision board this morning [everything happen for a reason ^_^]

Market Direction : Down

Accuracy : (11/16)