Market Opinion - Week 45

Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 Nov ~  22 Nov 2013

Have fun trading !~

Indexes
DJIA start : 15761 end : 15961 change : 199.92 %change : 1.3% YTD % : 21.8
Nasdaq start : 3919 end : 3985 change : 66.74 %change : 1.7% YTD % : 32.0
S&P start : 1770 end : 1798 change : 27.57 %change : 1.6% YTD % : 26.1
Rusell start : 1099 end : 1116 change : 16.23 %change : 1.5% YTD % : 31.4

Volume

Recap on last week

Week closed at  180.12 UP from previous week of 177.12

With fed continuing it's current stance of buying bonds; festive season around the corner; portfolio pumping and fund house having pressure to outperform the indexes before the year come to an end. There's definitely more thrust upside, but who will be the last to catch the hot potato.

VIX are really at a complacence level that it went below 13 points on Fri before picking up and closing above 13

Accuracy : 11/25

Market

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

November Trivia

• The first day has seen the DOW go down 5 of the last 8
• Sunday 3 November – Daylight Saving Time Ends
• Monday 4 November US Equity Markets will open at 22:30 hours (SG, MY)
• The first two weeks of November tends to be bullish
• The Monday of Expiration Week has been down on the DOW 8 of the last 14
• November Expiration Friday has been up on the DOW 9 of the last 11
• The week before Thanksgiving has seen the DOW go up 15 of the last 19
• The last week of the months is typically bullish
• November 28 is Thanksgiving Day – Markets are closed
• The last trading day of November is usually bearish. However, the S&P has been up 5 of the last 6

Commodities

• Oil continues its decline
• Nat Gas depends on climate changes to determine its direction in November
• Gold turns upward in mid month (but tends to come down sharply early in December)
• Silver starts its annual run up the charts around the same time as Gold (This long trade is good till February)
• Copper continues its weakness
• Soya tops out in mid month
• Wheat tops out in the first week
• Corn starts strengthening
• Cocoa bottoms early in the month and reverses upward after the first week (This long trade is good till Christmas)
• Coffee demand picks up in November but prices don’t make a significant rally yet
• Sugar tops out and consolidates at the top

Sectors

With Discretionary and Healthcare leading over 2%. 

Commodities, Currency, Bonds - CCB

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :
CRM, HD, BBY, DE, JCP, LOW, GMCR, GME, TGT, ANF, GPS, MRVL, P

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Looks like it's hitting a resistance around 180. But it's only a matter of time before it break over.

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
When the market is fearful, be greedy, when the market is greedy, be fearful. The market is on extreme greed and complacency who will the be ones to pay for the hefty price.


Opinion of the Market : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #34

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Sep ~ 6 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 163.65 down from previous week of 166.62. Mon open high to buffer in for the price drop throughout the rest of the week. I thought the almanac data would have a high probability as it mentioned about 2 last trading day of Aug tends to be bullish, I was thinking reason being anticipation into the 3 days holiday weekend into labour's day.

VIX hitting 17 and almost to 18 at one point forming a shooting star pattern. Fear is building up and will it come down as per the pattern. Divergence.

Accuracy : 11/23

Market

Major indexes still outperforming by alot compare to the average thus there might be alot of room for a correction in the up coming mths.

DJI : -1.33%

SPX : -1.84% 

NDX : -1.86%

RUT : -2.63%

162 will probably be tested this week or next. The next strong support base on the price volume. If it manage to break below 162 zone, pressure will be added to go for 159. and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

Trivia For September

• Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
• The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
• The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
• Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
• Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
• Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
• Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
• September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
• The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
• Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
• The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15

Commodities

• Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
• Nat Gas continues its strength till October
• Gold and Silver tops out in September
• Copper consolidates and turns down
• Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
• Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
• Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
• Coffee tops out in the first week of September
• Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical

ATR : 1.49 from 1.34 last week

Avg Volume : 127.64M down from last week of 128.97M
Volume : 129,552,384 from last week of 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 159 to 167

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
strong momentum still on the bear side. Almost overwhelming.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Hedge more


Opinion of the Market : down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #28

Market Opinion for Trading Week 22 Jul ~ 26 Jul 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 169.17, up from previous week of 167.51

Accuracy : 9/17

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #24

Market Opinion for Trading Week 24 Jun ~ 28 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 159.07, down from previous week of 163.18.

Almost 2.5% wash down on 20 Jun after fomc minutes of possible tapering of QE

Accuracy : 8/15

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #23

Market Opinion for Trading Week 17 Jun ~ 21 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 163.18, down from previous week of 164.8.  

Accuracy : 8/14

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #22

Market Opinion for Trading Week 10 Jun ~ 14 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 8/13

Market Opinion : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #21

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Jun ~ 7 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 7/12

Market Opinion : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #20

Market Opinion for Trading Week 27 May ~ 31 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #19

Market Opinion for Trading Week 20 May ~ 24 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Bullish upside