Market Opinion - Trading Week #20

Market Opinion for Trading Week 27 May ~ 31 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Down