Market Opinion - Trading Week #17

Market Opinion for Trading Week 6 May ~ 10 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 161.37 (I'm reminded of the PHI number, [161.8] that could be the next resistance). Week open higher and close higher. Week range been around 1 to 1.5 from Mon to Thurs and a thrust upward on Fri on the 7.5% unemployment rate, which is the lowest since 2010 according to forexfactory data. 

Unemployment Rate - May 13

But wait ! Look deeper ! How true is that figure ? How did they calculate it ?

Back in the 1940s, the government defined those terms: Any paid work in the past week counts as a job. And to be counted as officially unemployed, a person must have actively looked for work some time in the past month.

Personally, I m fine with this as having a part time job there's still income for the family and pay for the bills rather than doing nothing. It can be a permanment part time job until the person find a full time job. 

Under the official definition for unemployment rate, it was 7.7% in Feb 13, called the U-3 rate, there were 12 million people who said they had looked for a job without success compared to the 155.5 million in labour force.

there were also 6.8 million people who said they wanted a job but weren’t even looking, perhaps because they were discouraged. Or maybe other hurdles, such as transportation problems or child-care duties, stood in their way.

8 million people said bad economic and business conditions limited them to part-time hours even though they preferred to work full-time.
If you count those discouraged workers and involuntary part-timers as unemployed, the unemployment rate jumps to 14.3%. The government reports this number as the U-6 rate.

Interesting read on "the real Dow" 8,800 - http://moneymorning.com/2012/09/28/the-real-dow-is-at-8800-right-now/

Source : http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-03-08/commentary/37542497_1_unemployment-rate-jobless-rate-wrong-numbers

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/02/05/u-s-unemployment-our-long-economic-nightmare-continues/

Probably just like what i mentioned last week, 

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Almost everyone out there are anticipating the sell in may and go away, I would push the counter to break above the psychology resistance of 160 zone before joining the sell in may and go away. Well at the same time I will be hedge leaning towards shorting too. KaChing $

And there we go 161 test and let see how it goes from here.  Candles are no longer hovering just above but crossing up and down the EMA50,100,200 like a bull struggling to swim

Accuracy : 5/9

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Almost equal length upper and lower shadow. Creating higher low and higher high compare to last week candle. Still giving us a bullish feel with strength but somehow I m still very wary about it.

Pattern

Only 1 similar pattern in the past 2 year, open higher and close higher following by a pull back.

Earnings

Of the 404 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 72% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is slightly above the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

Source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.3.13#.UYe-oLX-GbE

Disney, DIS will be reporting their Q2 2013 earnings on 7 May 5pm AMC.
Ironman 3 movie and related IP & merchandises will definitely boost the earnings, will it be up to mark ?

House Party Protocol

//I really like all the series of Ironman movies and I guess the cinema probably gonna come up with a Ironman trilogy

Watch for TWX, upcoming DC Man of Steel.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Double rinse and wash, make it look like its coming down but not so soon yet. KaChing $

Technical

Resistance at 162 and support at 153

Next support level at 150

No go zone
Anything not higher than 158+5=163 and anything not lower than 153-5=148

Opinion of the Market next week : bearish