Market Opinion - Trading Week #18

Market Opinion for Trading Week 13 May ~ 17 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 163.41, up from previous week of 161.37. With a range of almost 2 dollars.

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Double rinse and wash, make it look like its coming down but not so soon yet. KaChing $

Seem like it's hitting resistance at 163.5. Short seller are getting squeeze, waiting for the Sell in May and go away to happen but it's just not happening and going against =). Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

I m reminded of the portfolio pumping, did it happen last week or its gonna be this week.

Candles are very close to SMA lines, on Fri, SMA50 and 100 are below 200 and candles barely floating above SMA200 line. 

Accuracy : 5/10

SPY - Weekly Candlestick

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bullish candle no sign of weakness, full bull with lesser commitment than last week when you compare the body size.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 2 similar pattern in the past 2 year, flat no lower shadow with a bullish body and tiny upper shadow head. Both follow up a short consolidation before making the big move. And both went upwards after the consolidation.

Earnings

Of the 404 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 72% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is slightly above the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

Source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.3.13#.UYe-oLX-GbE

Earnings this week : KO, BAX, A, WMT

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Technical

SPY - Daily Candle Technical Analysis

Resistance at 165 and support at 160. Break above rising wedge or from another perspective of where you draw the top line, it might still be a rising wedge which is a reversal pattern to the downside.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 163+2=165 and anything not lower than 158-2=156

Opinion of the Market next week : Bullish Flat