Market Opinion - Trading Week #34

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Sep ~ 6 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 163.65 down from previous week of 166.62. Mon open high to buffer in for the price drop throughout the rest of the week. I thought the almanac data would have a high probability as it mentioned about 2 last trading day of Aug tends to be bullish, I was thinking reason being anticipation into the 3 days holiday weekend into labour's day.

VIX hitting 17 and almost to 18 at one point forming a shooting star pattern. Fear is building up and will it come down as per the pattern. Divergence.

Accuracy : 11/23

Market

Major indexes still outperforming by alot compare to the average thus there might be alot of room for a correction in the up coming mths.

DJI : -1.33%

SPX : -1.84% 

NDX : -1.86%

RUT : -2.63%

162 will probably be tested this week or next. The next strong support base on the price volume. If it manage to break below 162 zone, pressure will be added to go for 159. and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

Trivia For September

• Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
• The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
• The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
• Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
• Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
• Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
• Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
• September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
• The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
• Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
• The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15

Commodities

• Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
• Nat Gas continues its strength till October
• Gold and Silver tops out in September
• Copper consolidates and turns down
• Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
• Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
• Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
• Coffee tops out in the first week of September
• Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical

ATR : 1.49 from 1.34 last week

Avg Volume : 127.64M down from last week of 128.97M
Volume : 129,552,384 from last week of 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 159 to 167

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
strong momentum still on the bear side. Almost overwhelming.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Hedge more


Opinion of the Market : down