Market Opinion - Trading Week #37

Market Opinion for Trading Week 23 Sep ~  27 Sep 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Indexes

Volume

Recap on last week

Week closed at  170.72 UP from previous week of 169.33

Market are like on steroid bumping higher and higher until Thurs. It should come down when its overbought but some out there just buying it higher as if pushing it's limit. We are in the month supposedly bearish month and going into Oct which major crash happened. The YTD gains are indicating a huge room for reversion to mean. While we all waited like it should have retrace abit when its way overbought just like when you sprint for a short burst, the body will take a break to recuperate. Apparently external factor like fed decisions are swaying directly and indirectly. How the control on money supply have almost the power of god as it affect almost everyone on earth directly and indirectly.

For S&P 500 YTD gain is 19.9%, or SPY price at 170
By printing more money to buy treasury bonds, money value depreciated.
ie in the past 1 bond cost 1 dollar, as there's more supply of money, now 1 bond cost 2 dollar.

Applying the same, maybe SPY value cost 140, due to the adjustment in money supply, it got inflated and cost 170 now. Under normal rate, it probably take a couple more years maybe 5-10 years to hit 280 but due to the rate of adjustment on money supply, couple more years might just be shorten significantly. We shall see how fast it hit.

If you notice, all the little expenditure that we are paying are rising in price some at a incredible rate. ie just 2 weeks back, i bought a double cheese burger at mac for $2.6, 1 week before that it was at $2.5 i doubt how many people will actually notice the 10 cents different. But that 10 cents is a 4% increase in cost for consumer, now we are talking right ? We don't even have 1% interest on bank saving account or how many funds out there are averaging a 4% returns ? The point is money value is becoming smaller and we need even more to buy for the same items aka inflation at a certain rate. But if someone else come into the picture from behind the scene, printing more and more money. It just became a body that is heavily reliance on drugs and to make it worst, this body can create drugs whenever it like.



2 keys things - Capitalism & Debts that i learnt from "mens who build america" and "Rothschild" are seemly amazing.

VIX are really at a complacence level that it went below 13 points on Fri before picking up and closing above 13

Accuracy : 11/25

Market

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

Trivia For September

• Monday, September 02 is Labor Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Labor Day or the first trading day of September has been up on S&P 12 of the last 17 and up on the DOW 13 of the last 18
• The next three sessions after the first trading session tends to be bearish
• The second week of September is the month’s most bullish week
• Market remembers 9/11 (Wednesday) of 2001
• Monday of Expiration Week is usually bearish
• Expiration Week of September tends to favor the bears
• Wednesday 18 September – FOMC Meeting
• September 20 is Triple Witching Friday with the DOW up 9 of the last 10
• The fourth week is bearish, going down on the DOW 17 of the last 22
• Watch out for Portfolio Dumping/Window Dressing in the last week of the month/quarter.
• The last day of Quarter Three has been down on the DOW 11 of the last 15

Commodities

• Crude tops out in September and reverses mid-month
• Nat Gas continues its strength till October
• Gold and Silver tops out in September
• Copper consolidates and turns down
• Soya stays weak and Corn continues to slide down
• Wheat maintains strength but tends to weaken depending on weather
• Cocoa weakens mid month till end October
• Coffee tops out in the first week of September
• Sugar bottoms and consolidates

Sectors

9 Sectors

With industrial , material and utilities leading and Energy lagging.

Commodities, Currency, Bonds - CCB

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :



Technical

SPY - Daily

ATR : 1.53

Avg Volume : 113.64M down from last last week of 127.64M
Volume : 19,759,852 down from last last week of 129,552,384

Zone Probability

Range :

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
consolidation to take a breather which might give an false indication of a dip on the downside. After all it just get higher and higher as long as fed is gonna continue printing. On the other side, we are going into month of Oct and if we really just look at candlestick only, it seems a higher probability to have a downwards dip.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
When the market is fearful, be greedy, when the market is greedy, be fearful


Opinion of the Market : down