Market Opinion - Week 45

Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 Nov ~  22 Nov 2013

Have fun trading !~

Indexes
DJIA start : 15761 end : 15961 change : 199.92 %change : 1.3% YTD % : 21.8
Nasdaq start : 3919 end : 3985 change : 66.74 %change : 1.7% YTD % : 32.0
S&P start : 1770 end : 1798 change : 27.57 %change : 1.6% YTD % : 26.1
Rusell start : 1099 end : 1116 change : 16.23 %change : 1.5% YTD % : 31.4

Volume

Recap on last week

Week closed at  180.12 UP from previous week of 177.12

With fed continuing it's current stance of buying bonds; festive season around the corner; portfolio pumping and fund house having pressure to outperform the indexes before the year come to an end. There's definitely more thrust upside, but who will be the last to catch the hot potato.

VIX are really at a complacence level that it went below 13 points on Fri before picking up and closing above 13

Accuracy : 11/25

Market

source : http://www.conradalvinlim.com/

November Trivia

• The first day has seen the DOW go down 5 of the last 8
• Sunday 3 November – Daylight Saving Time Ends
• Monday 4 November US Equity Markets will open at 22:30 hours (SG, MY)
• The first two weeks of November tends to be bullish
• The Monday of Expiration Week has been down on the DOW 8 of the last 14
• November Expiration Friday has been up on the DOW 9 of the last 11
• The week before Thanksgiving has seen the DOW go up 15 of the last 19
• The last week of the months is typically bullish
• November 28 is Thanksgiving Day – Markets are closed
• The last trading day of November is usually bearish. However, the S&P has been up 5 of the last 6

Commodities

• Oil continues its decline
• Nat Gas depends on climate changes to determine its direction in November
• Gold turns upward in mid month (but tends to come down sharply early in December)
• Silver starts its annual run up the charts around the same time as Gold (This long trade is good till February)
• Copper continues its weakness
• Soya tops out in mid month
• Wheat tops out in the first week
• Corn starts strengthening
• Cocoa bottoms early in the month and reverses upward after the first week (This long trade is good till Christmas)
• Coffee demand picks up in November but prices don’t make a significant rally yet
• Sugar tops out and consolidates at the top

Sectors

With Discretionary and Healthcare leading over 2%. 

Commodities, Currency, Bonds - CCB

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :
CRM, HD, BBY, DE, JCP, LOW, GMCR, GME, TGT, ANF, GPS, MRVL, P

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Looks like it's hitting a resistance around 180. But it's only a matter of time before it break over.

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
When the market is fearful, be greedy, when the market is greedy, be fearful. The market is on extreme greed and complacency who will the be ones to pay for the hefty price.


Opinion of the Market : Up