Friday, June 24, 2011

Daily Market Analysis - Friday, 24 June 2011

Thursday, 23 June 2011 AMC



Dow12,050.00-59.67-0.49%
Chart for Dow


Nasdaq2,686.750.000.00%
Chart for Nasdaq


S&P 5001,283.500.000.00%
Chart for S&P 500

Russell 2000802.680.000.00%
Chart for Russell 2000

Summary :
Market direction for 23 Jun (Thur) - down

  1. Probably the New home Sales data will be probably bad base on 21 Jun existing home sales
  2. Drop in GDP and increase in unemployment rates
  3. Candle stick pattern short dusk / bearish engulfing 
Well it didn't turn out as bearish i thought it would. Did a trade on SPY right after the bell and manage to make little profit =D. When i took profit and the SPY ascend till the early afternoon , thought of making another entry for SPY when i saw the head and shoulder pattern, it break below and i waited for it to retest the resist but got too tired and went to bed. "the push from the final hour was good , wonder what news push it up"



Economic Data
8:30amUSD
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
0.6%
1.0%
-0.4%


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures gained Friday after the government revised its estimate for U.S. economic growth for the first quarter to 1.9% from an initial estimate of a 1.8%. Shedding mild losses, futures for the Dow Jones Industrials were up 4 points at 11,980. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures rose 1.9 points to 1,278.9. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 8 points to 2,245.5. 


Summary :
Market direction for 24 June 2011 (Fri) - Up


  1. Little bit of "so call good news" revised GDP, 
  2. Futures for indices moving up
  3. Candlestick pattern out of shape hammer
Accuracy : (1/1)

SPY Trade - 23 Jun 2011

I decided to have my virgin entry on SPDR S&P 500 (ETF) (AMEX)‎ aka SPY. I plan for day trade meaning by end of the day I would have close my position no matter what happen.


Why this trade? Based on today's DMA - http://shulouto.blogspot.com/2011/06/daily-market-analysis.html
Market direction for 23 Jun (Wed) - down

  1. Probably the New home Sales data will be probably bad base on 21 Jun existing home sales
  2. Drop in GDP and increase in unemployment rates
  3. Candle stick pattern short dusk / bearish engulfing (correction it should be shooting star pattern "man i need more practice on identifying the candlesticks pattern")
Plus Economic Data on Unemployment claims (up) and I think the new home sales will be bad too

8:30amUSD
Unemployment Claims
429K
414K
420K


10:00amUSD
New Home Sales
319K
311K
326K



Trading Plan
I was waiting for the market to open around 9:25pm and ding ding ding, market open and damn SPY gap down from $128.67 to $127.16 (-$1.51) Man couldn't take my entry as I m still paper trading and with the 20 minutes delayed quote, the option chain open only abt 15minutes later.

Profit Target : $0.40
Option price : $2.40
# of option contract : 10 "Due to my other position i can only afford to buy 6 contracts =\"
Stop Loss : $0.40




Bought the Jul 11 127 PUT option. Took half off the table when it hit $0.40 profit target and trail stop the remaining 3 contracts @ $0.20. (51 minutes)

Profit : $183
Commission : $35.4
Net Profit : $147.60

What's Scalping ? (From investopedia)
Scalping is a trading style specializing in taking profits on small price changes, generally soon after a trade has been entered and has become profitable. It requires a trader to have a strict exit strategy because one large loss could eliminate the many small gains that the trader has worked to obtain.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Daily Market Analysis


DateTime & Date Options7:21amCurrencyImpact DetailActualForecastPrevious

21 Jun

10:00amUSD
Existing Home Sales
4.81M
4.82M
5.00M


23 Jun

8:30amUSD
Unemployment Claims
414K
414K


10:00amUSD
New Home Sales
311K
323K


10:30amUSD
Natural Gas Storage
91B
69B


Almanac (Fri) - short corn

Fed Chairman Bernanke's press conference, during which he announced that the Fed now believes 2011 GDP will range from 2.7% to 2.9%, down from the range of 3.1% to 3.3% that was announced in April. Additionally, unemployment for 2011 is now expected to range from 8.6% to 8.9%, up from the range of 8.4% to 8.7%. Core PCE inflation for 2011 is now expected to range from 1.5% to 1.8%, up from the range of 1.3% of 1.6% that had been forecasted before.

Earnings :

Potential 5DPEG :

Summary :
Market direction for 23 Jun (Wed) - down

  1. Probably the New home Sales data will be probably bad base on 21 Jun existing home sales
  2. Drop in GDP and increase in unemployment rates
  3. Candle stick pattern short dusk / bearish engulfing 






(Records : )

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Fedex Earnings up by 33%

Man miss the boat .... just saw the news
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fedex-profits-rise-as-global-trade-gains-steam-2011-06-22

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- FedEx Corp. said Wednesday that higher shipping prices and volumes helped lift its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings by 33% on Wednesday and returned its freight business to profitability.


I blame my ill discipline =\ lazy ass to monitor 5DPEG stocks



strong volume and good bull push

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

SJM Vertical Put Spread

How do I issue a trail stop vertical put spread ?

1. STO 10 Vertical 80/75 Put spread, profiting


2. BTC 5 Vertical 80/75 Put spread

3. Set trail stop of $0.20 profit, correct way to set the order ?

 4. execute trail stop order for the rest of the contracts


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