Daily Market Analysis - Monday 15 August, 2011

Friday 12 August, 2011 - AMC

Friday 12 August, 2011 Economic Data

Fri Aug 12	8:30am	USD		Core Retail Sales m/m		0.5%	0.2%	0.2%
	8:30am	USD		Retail Sales m/m		0.5%	0.4%	0.3%
	9:55am	USD		Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment		54.9	63.2	63.7
	9:55am	USD		Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations		3.4%		3.4%
	10:00am	USD		Business Inventories m/m		0.3%	0.6%	0.9%
	10:00am	USD		FOMC Member Dudley Speaks

Sectors Performance

 

What move the market 

Consumer sentiment makes surprisingly sharp drop

Retail sales pick up from prior month -- sales less autos exceed expectations

Europe's bourses bounce; several countries in the continent impose short-selling bans

Read more: http://briefing.com/investor/markets/stock-market-update/#ixzz1V4qS12qX

Commodities

ENERGY FUTURES

CRUDE OIL 85.32 -0.06 -0.07%

NATURAL GAS 4.012 -0.048 -1.18%

RBOB GASOLINE 2.8234 0.0012 +0.04%

BRENT CRUDE 108.18 0.15 +0.14%

METAL FUTURES

GOLD 1743.60 1.00 +0.06%

SILVER 38.97 -0.144 -0.37%

COPPER 4.0495 0.0375 +0.93%

PLATINUM 1798.50 1.80 +0.1%

AGRICULTURE FUTURES

WHEAT 708.25 5.75 +0.82%

SOYBEAN 1344.25 9.50 +0.71%

CORN 718.75 4.25 +0.59%

SUGAR 27.84 --- UNCH 0

COFFEE 240.35 --- UNCH 0

COTTON 101.21 0.69 +0.69%

ROUGH RICE 17.045 0.235 +1.4%

ETHANOL 2.785 --- UNCH 0

Treasury Yield

INTEREST RATE FUTURES

TREASURY BOND 136.50 -0.4375 -0.32%

10-YR NOTE 129.5781 -0.2969 -0.23%

2-YR NOTE 110.2969 -0.0156 -0.01%

EURODOLLAR 99.48 0.01 +0.01%

Notable Earnings

Newcrest Mining fiscal year profit jumps 63%(7:29 pm ET) SYDNEY (MarketWatch) -- Gold mining firm Newcrest Mining Ltd. (AU:NCM: news, chart, profile) [s; ncmgf] said Monday that its fiscal-year statutory profit rose 63% to 908 million Australian dollars, from A$557 million in the year-ago period. Underlying profit rose 36% to A$1.06 billion, compared to the A$1.05 billion expected by analysts surveyed in a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Revenue rose 46% to A$4.1 billion, with gold sales up 60% at A$3.4 billion and silver sales up 129% at A$55 million. Copper sales decreased 2% to A$638 million. Gold production rose 43% to 2.53 million ounces in the year and the firm said that it expects fiscal 2012 gold production in a range of 2.78 million ounces to 2.93 million ounces.

Friday, Aug. 12

DeVry shares sink 16% as student enrollment lags(10:16 am ET) SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- DeVry (DR: news, chart, profile) shares sank 16% to $45 in early Friday trades after the for-profit education provider warned new student enrollment is lagging. The stock was the biggest decliner among S&P 500 companies. DeVry said late Thursday its total enrollment fell 1.2% to 119,000 students. Shares of other education companies also fell Friday. Strayer Education (STRA: news, chart, profile) dropped 5% to $100.12. ITT Educational Services (ESI: news, chart, profile) lost 5% to $72.70. Apollo Group (APOL: news,chart, profile) , parent of University of Phoenix, slipped 2% to $44.

Nvidia leads early tech gains(9:46 am ET) SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Nvidia Corp. led early gains in the tech sector on Friday morning, helped along by a broad-market boost that added 100 points to the battered Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA: news, chart, profile) after the opening bell. Nvidia (NVDA: news,chart, profile) shares jumped more than 5% to $14.15 after the chip-maker posted better-than-expected results for its second fiscal quarter, along with a revenue outlook for the current period that was slightly ahead of forecasts. The Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP: news, chart, profile) was up 0.5% to 2,504 while the Morgan Stanley High-Tech Index rose 0.5% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX: news, chart, profile) rose 0.3%.

Energy stocks rise out of the gate(9:41 am ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Energy stocks rose Friday to finish out a choppy week of big swings. The NYSE Arca Oil Index (XX:XOI: news, chart, profile) rose 1.4%, the NYSE Arca Natural Gas Index (XX:XNG: news, chart, profile) rose 1.3% and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX: news, chart, profile) rose 1.6%.

Newell Rubbermaid buying back $300 in stock(7:47 am ET) NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Newell Rubbermaid Inc. (NWL: news, chart, profile) said Friday it approved a $300 million stock buyback. The program is authorized to run through August, 2014.

Technical Updates

Monday 15 August, 2011 BMO

Monday 15 August, 2011 Economic Data 

Mon Aug 15	8:30am	USD		Empire State Manufacturing Index			0.8	-3.8
	9:00am	USD		TIC Long-Term Purchases			30.4B	23.6B
	10:00am	USD		NAHB Housing Market Index			15	15

TIC explained : TIC Long-Term Purchases

Difference in value between long-term foreign securities purchased and domestic long-term securities purchased by foreigners. This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment - for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net value would be $70 billion. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month.

News

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Time Warner Cable(TWC) Inc. (TWC), is in advanced talks to buy Insight Communications for about $3 billion, Bloomberg reported.

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Exactly 40 years ago Monday, the U.S. dollar formally became a fiat currency, as then-President Richard Nixon “closed the gold window” and ended the greenback’s precious-metal guarantee.

Transocean Bids $1.43 Billion for Aker Drilling

World Bank Chief Warns of New Danger Zone for Markets

World Repeating Japan's 1997 Mistake: Former Fed Economist

Earnings

Almanac 

Summary

Well last friday, we saw a little upside but it's was damn tough, i was waiting by the last trading hours to look for an opportunity but the market lack strength and direction. 

I was watching a financial program last night and some of the speaker/analyst remains think that the market will make a return and some re-literate that possibility of a double dip recession can happen. But overall sentiment still giving positive lights to the viewers i think. 

Now lets look at what's actually happening, with the US debt and Euro crisis (it seem like all of them are in endless cycle of debt). To put it simple, ie a person Brad has a debt of $100,000 people thought that in a couple of year time he's able to pay off the debt but when the couple of years is up, he need to borrow more debt to sustain his lifestyle. After numerous discussion he somehow manage to convince the lender to lend more debt. He failed to repay the first debt, and now he's asking for a increase in debt, if your the lender would you lend him your money ? what's your confidence ?

Perhaps its a human psychology to ease the short term pain and ignore the chronic problem. Or how many actually sees the chronic problem.

In summary, on the long run I remain bearish. 

Well there also another group which think its a market correction which we see over the last 2 weeks and its time to buy the market low to make some good profits. Buying the dips ? Is the market at it's low already ? From statistics, Aug and Sep (tends to be the worst mth).

The TIC data probably be good today as people are buying in safe haven bonds with the volatile market performance.

Market Direction : Up

Accuracy : (10/15)