Market Opinion - Trading Week #3

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 28 Jan to 1 Feb 2013

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Recap on last week

One of the biggest uproar last week was AAPL earnings, on Wed it close around 515 and open with HUGE GAP, 458 almost a 10% drop. OUCH 

Check this brief notes on how AAPL actually perform. They are a good company and products are lovely. I used to be an iphone user and their macbook air is in my wishlist =) its so pretty.

 In its Q1 2013 earnings report, Apple posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and a record net profit for the quarter of $13.1 billion on $13.81 per diluted share. Based on an independent consensus from 67 different analysts, Wall Street had expected $58.84 billion in revenue on $15.11 earnings per diluted share.

Regarding unit estimates, Wall Street’s consensus expected Apple to have sold roughly 50 million iPhones and 23 million iPads; in the final earnings report, however, Apple reported selling only 47.8 million iPhones and 22.9 million iPads.

“We’re pleased to have generated over $23 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter,” Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO, said. “We established new all-time quarterly records for iPhone and iPad sales, significantly broadened our ecosystem and generated Apple’s highest quarterly revenue ever.”

How the hell the stock got beaten so badly , just because the analyst have higher expectation. From my personal opinion, I m happy =) its a opportunity to pick up some apples just wait for it to find the next support. People probably got shocked on the gap and reacted and market maker or big boys might want to leverage on this opportunity to create a short term fear, causing people to panic sell (imagine you're holding it and it drop 10% in 1 day) SELLLLLLLLLL thereafter after helping the market maker or big boys to make the counter even cheaper to buy to make a profit.

Now back to the market, well it was up Up UP week. Bingo for me !  It was moving with momentum until it reached the 150 mark big whole number and break above it. I thought it would take sometime for it to break above. 

Accuracy : 2/2 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ? Not much sign of bearishness yet. People can really get greedy. Plus it just break above the 150 mark. It's probably a V shape for next week. Bulls taking a breather by taking off some profit making it like a test of support on 150 mark before the bull continue to charge again. I m conservative bullish for next week.

Technical
Similar to previous post except that it break the high again. Reaching the channel resistance. I was doubtful in the feeling of candle but the technical aspect gave me a boost in confidence.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Yucks almost some important data releasing every single day. Its confusing when data are release and we are at the in between of either a support/resistance line. Probably volatile

Chinese new year coming in close. People are still on buying spree and probably lots of last minute shoppers, I guess it's still good for the overall economic till end of CNY. I wonder if for the past 20 years, 2 week before and 1 week after chinese new year, is there a pattern in the market ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

Market Opinion - Trading Week #2

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 21 Jan to 25 Jan 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Last week was fun =), went to thailand, bangkok first holiday trip for 2013 and 3 more holiday destinations to  accomplish this year !

Jan 13 : Thailand

May 13 : Taiwan (next)

Sep 13 : China

Dec 13 : Japan

 I m so inspired by the lifestyle of traveling and trading here and there during the trip to make up some of the shopping expenses =) and ultimately entire trip paid for from trading with spare to invest. As mentioned in my previous market opinion post - sideways to the upside, I was very near ^ ^ looking at the above. It was moving sideways to a little upside and once it break the 147 mark, woola people on the sideline gain confident or should I says become greedy, thinking phew we past the safety line and its time to party. 

Accuracy : 1/1 100% (that so nice 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ? I would say still bullish, no sign for strong bears yet. Since it breakout the 52 week high, people who have been on the sideline waiting might turn greedy and its time to jump, buying the high. Like a pyramid effect, people who went in first, waiting for greedy money to push the high to a higher high and take their profit and run. And those who run too late, it's payment for your lesson. There will also be another group where it's at the high, they wanted to wait but it move higher. Fear of missing out the ride, they gave in to temptation and got caught in the higher high wave.

It probably come back to test  the support line in the next few session.

Technical
Similar to previous post except that it break the 52 week high. Or breaking the ascending triangle pattern earlier.


What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
21 Jan - Bank holiday, market closed.
Not too much economic data which is good for the market and price. Everything is factor into the price. Proper sense of the market without much confusion.

Remember the scenario, if you are a market maker for SPY,

"Remind me of another lesson, 95% of the world money is hold by the top 1%. And price move in according to how the money flow. So if you are the top 1 % how would you put your money knowing that the market can move up, down or sideways. If you are a market maker of SPY, how would you set the traps ?
1) make it appear that the counter is hitting resistance, loose steam and attract people shorting follow by a reversal push triggering their stops
2) make it appear that the counter is going strong breaking the 52 resistance, attracting people who want to buy it higher before reversing it to trigger stops probably just below the latest support level. After that sending it back again for a bullish Jan
3) Combination of 1 + 2"

Looks like scenario 2 is on play, let's wait a few more session to see the full plot.

Volumes might pick up as there's not too much economic data plus again Chinese new year coming in a few weeks. People are still on buying spree, I wonder if US celebrate Chinese new year or there's a public holiday in the state during Chinese New Year.

People, are looking for new furniture big tickets items), new clothing  to welcome the new year. Hong bao for younger generation as a blessing which in turn the receiver will spend it. Though most of the consumers are chinese, they buy products/services from all over the world. This encourage business in general.

Like for myself, my family is looking to get a new piece of LED Smart TV which can easily cost a few thousands.

Opinion of the Market next week : Up and sideways

Market Opinion - Trading Week #1

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 14 Jan to 18 Jan 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY

SPY closed higher up with volume dipping a little.

Well I can't remember the candle stick pattern but I think there's a simple way to do what Leon has taught us during the Coach Tutelage - feel the candle. And the interesting yet SIMPLE exercise of 'feel the candle'. He showed us a combination of 3 candles and uses mass market reaction to do a poll.

ie the following :
After knowing how to read a bullish or bearish candle, you can use your own psychology to determine the likelihood of the trend ahead.

What's the likelihood of the candles moving up, down or sideway next ?

Looking at this week closing, the bulls have push pretty hard giving the bears no room. It probably still got some strength to go ahead before the bears wake up.

On the technical, it's closing in to it's 52 weeks high, probably still some little room to test the resistance if it will garner enough strength to push thru next week.

A possible double top or a cup and out of shape cup and handle/ascending triangle breaking out. January tend to be bullish till around Mar period.

Spotting pattern of similar candles, there are 4 near to similar pattern whereby bullish trend with a candle with no or little top shadow. Out of the 4, 2 of them are bullish after that.

Pattern of the month compare to previous year, bullish upside.

From a psychology point, most of us know and can see that the counter is hitting on a resistance of 52 week high and support at 145. Thus most people would be in the state of 'see how' and not doing anything thus we might be seeing lower volume and sideway movement.

From macroeconomic point, the fiscal cliff effect is delayed till feb 13 and with the festive mood (Chinese New Year coming too =) and valentine ) // To avoid the possible high tax, probably more people would be putting their money into equity or investment instrument.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Fed Chairman speaking on mon with Retail sales report, building permits and unemployment claims - a heavy reports week which might further confuse the people out there. //remind me of this quote : "everything has been factor into the price." This news/reports probably is there to swayed or confuse people.

Remind me of another lesson, 95% of the world money is hold by the top 1%. And price move in according to how the money flow. So if you are the top 1 % how would you put your money knowing that the market can move up, down or sideway. If you are a market maker of SPY, how would you set the traps ?
1) make it appear that the counter is hitting resistance, loose steam and attract people shorting follow by a reversal push triggering their stops
2) make it appear that the counter is going strong breaking the 52 resistance, attracting people who want to buy it higher before reversing it to trigger stops probably just below the latest support level. After that sending it back again for a bullish Jan
3) Combination of 1 + 2

Opinion of the Market next week : Sideway to the upside