Market Opinion for the Trading Week 14 Jan to 18 Jan 2013
Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~Recap on last week
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| SPY |
Well I can't remember the candle stick pattern but I think there's a simple way to do what Leon has taught us during the Coach Tutelage - feel the candle. And the interesting yet SIMPLE exercise of 'feel the candle'. He showed us a combination of 3 candles and uses mass market reaction to do a poll.
ie the following :
After knowing how to read a bullish or bearish candle, you can use your own psychology to determine the likelihood of the trend ahead.
What's the likelihood of the candles moving up, down or sideway next ?
Looking at this week closing, the bulls have push pretty hard giving the bears no room. It probably still got some strength to go ahead before the bears wake up.
On the technical, it's closing in to it's 52 weeks high, probably still some little room to test the resistance if it will garner enough strength to push thru next week.
Spotting pattern of similar candles, there are 4 near to similar pattern whereby bullish trend with a candle with no or little top shadow. Out of the 4, 2 of them are bullish after that.
From a psychology point, most of us know and can see that the counter is hitting on a resistance of 52 week high and support at 145. Thus most people would be in the state of 'see how' and not doing anything thus we might be seeing lower volume and sideway movement.
From macroeconomic point, the fiscal cliff effect is delayed till feb 13 and with the festive mood (Chinese New Year coming too =) and valentine ) // To avoid the possible high tax, probably more people would be putting their money into equity or investment instrument.
What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Fed Chairman speaking on mon with Retail sales report, building permits and unemployment claims - a heavy reports week which might further confuse the people out there. //remind me of this quote : "everything has been factor into the price." This news/reports probably is there to swayed or confuse people.
Remind me of another lesson, 95% of the world money is hold by the top 1%. And price move in according to how the money flow. So if you are the top 1 % how would you put your money knowing that the market can move up, down or sideway. If you are a market maker of SPY, how would you set the traps ?
1) make it appear that the counter is hitting resistance, loose steam and attract people shorting follow by a reversal push triggering their stops
2) make it appear that the counter is going strong breaking the 52 resistance, attracting people who want to buy it higher before reversing it to trigger stops probably just below the latest support level. After that sending it back again for a bullish Jan
3) Combination of 1 + 2
Opinion of the Market next week : Sideway to the upside
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