Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Opinion - Trading Week #7



Market Opinion for Trading Week 25 ~ 1 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~




Recap on last week
Still holding above 151 at week close and above 150 at lowest. 

Accuracy : 4/5 80% (well missed it by alittle could have the winning steak arghh haha)



Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bulls are being pushed and test at the support of 150. And they are not going to give in easily. But they lack commitment to push it up at the end of the trading week.

Bears might take advantage of this as bulls are giving signal of weakness and lack of commitment. Most of the people are gonna stay on the side waiting for a couple of big bulls or bears to take the lead.



Pattern
Eillot wave pattern appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.

There are only 2 similar pattern from the past 1 year plus candles.
1) Around Mar 12 which, the following week gap up and weekly candle closed higher.
2) Around Sep 12 which gap down and weekly candle closed lower.

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $

Technical

Last Bullish candle lack commitment from the volume and it's floating just above the SMA20. Daily candles are falling down on the SMA 20 or rather getting closer and one session break below last week.

150 seem to be a good support with quite a couple of contact points. Will it hold the bears coming out from hibernation ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little down side to test the support

Monday, February 18, 2013

Market Opinion - Trading Week #6


Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 ~ 22 Feb 2013

Have fun trading !~


Recap on last week
Man I missed last week's market opinion. I was in post CNY mood and totally forgotten about it until tue/wed. Paid up my bet to Jason, oh I have not collected the $2 he owe. By the way, Jason if you are reading this, time to pay up wahaha. 

Now for last week market, seem pretty flat and holding well at the support around 151.

Accuracy : 4/4 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

SPY -  Weekly


Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

The bears are giving a little more effort for the push now. Some maybe came out of hibernation earlier to hunt for food =)

And the bull want to hold their defense line on the range around 151. I would say 150 looks like a very good support line.Big whole round number. The bulls aren't going to give in easily on this defense line.

Bear might want to push a little but not gonna use too much effort know bulls will hold strong around 150. They probably gonna tease them around this range.

I m gonna be a playful bear this week. It's probably gonna be flat as lots of people gonna sit on the fence to "see how it goes". And form a little W slanted and falling on the right side.


Bears that are coming out of hibernation early ...


Article from 2012 : The black bears are coming out of hibernation weeks earlier than normal this year due to our incredibly mild winter and even warmer spring. This means that they are incredibly hungry and looking for easy meals since some plants that they normally consume have not emerged yet. Bears have an incredible sense of smell so trashcans and bird feeders are easy targets for them. It’s important to only bring out your trashcans only on collection days if possible and store them in areas not easy accessible to a bear like locked garages or sheds. Bears have been known to smash windows or knock down screen doors to get to available food when desperate. Bird feeders should be removed from springtime to around November, as birds will have plenty of food options provided by nature. It is also important to note that bears have been known to attack and eat livestock, deer and pets so letting “Fido” out to chase one away isn’t always the smartest move. Just remember to be safe out there.
Pattern
There are only 2 similar pattern from the past 1 year plus candles.
1) Around Feb 12 which, the following week gap up and weekly candle was bullish.
2) Around Jul 11 which gap down and weekly candle was bearish.

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $


Technical
SPY - Daily

At resistance level with spurge in volume on daily candles. On the weekly candles, volume are dipping to support the bullishness.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
I m beginning to lose interest on this section as people are probably just gonna react to the economic data for that particular day and forget all about it the next session. Everything probably factor in the price already. Market is irrational.

Chinese new year seem to come fast and go fast. Without knowing we are into the mid month of Feb 2013. And we have about 10 months left for the year, what have I achieve for the past 1 and a half months ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

Monday, February 04, 2013

Market Opinion - Trading Week #4




Market Opinion for the Trading Week 4 Feb to 8 Feb 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

SPY - 5 Days Candles



Recap on last week
It's not exactly like a 'V' shape as expected an ugly shaped 'V' formed later part of the week. Seem like the support ard 150 is holding.

Accuracy : 3/3 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

SPY - Weekly Candles


Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

The bears are starting to give a little stretch. And it's probably little trickle to the bull to make them work harder =) or setting up the stage for the greedy bulls to jump in. Apparently, bulls are really determine type, they just don't like to be push. Sense the good commitment from the bulls. They probably won't feel a pinch with just a little tickle from the bear.


It's probably a tick shape for this week. I m a shy bull for next week.
It just stuck me suddenly, what's the behaviour pattern of a bull > from wikipedia > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull

Bulls are much more muscular than cows, with thicker bones, larger feet, a very muscular neck, and a large, bony head with protective ridges over the eyes. These features assist bulls in fighting for domination over a herd, giving the winner superior access to cows for reproduction.[4] 

Hmm bulls are stubborn animal. It probably take quite an extend effort for the bull to move itself to charge towards something. But once it start, it's not easy to stop it. Are we seeing something about the bull on the market now.

So how to stop a charging bull ? http://www.wikihow.com/Avoid/Escape-a-Bull
By creating fear(need a big Bear to do that =) ) or side step and run towards the opposite direction.

Technical
Break high again. And hitting channel resistance.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Only 3 major economic data release this week. That's good.

It's the Chinese new year week. Everyone is doing their last minutes shopping and not forgetting the reunion dinner and yu sheng. And the never ending queues at Bak Kwa stores.

It's probably good pattern to trade Chinese restaurant chain stock during this period. And maybe the pork belly future

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_belly


Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

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