Market Opinion - Trading Week #6

Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 ~ 22 Feb 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Man I missed last week's market opinion. I was in post CNY mood and totally forgotten about it until tue/wed. Paid up my bet to Jason, oh I have not collected the $2 he owe. By the way, Jason if you are reading this, time to pay up wahaha. 

Now for last week market, seem pretty flat and holding well at the support around 151.

Accuracy : 4/4 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

SPY -  Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

The bears are giving a little more effort for the push now. Some maybe came out of hibernation earlier to hunt for food =)

And the bull want to hold their defense line on the range around 151. I would say 150 looks like a very good support line.Big whole round number. The bulls aren't going to give in easily on this defense line.

Bear might want to push a little but not gonna use too much effort know bulls will hold strong around 150. They probably gonna tease them around this range.

I m gonna be a playful bear this week. It's probably gonna be flat as lots of people gonna sit on the fence to "see how it goes". And form a little W slanted and falling on the right side.


Bears that are coming out of hibernation early ...

Article from 2012 : The black bears are coming out of hibernation weeks earlier than normal this year due to our incredibly mild winter and even warmer spring. This means that they are incredibly hungry and looking for easy meals since some plants that they normally consume have not emerged yet. Bears have an incredible sense of smell so trashcans and bird feeders are easy targets for them. It’s important to only bring out your trashcans only on collection days if possible and store them in areas not easy accessible to a bear like locked garages or sheds. Bears have been known to smash windows or knock down screen doors to get to available food when desperate. Bird feeders should be removed from springtime to around November, as birds will have plenty of food options provided by nature. It is also important to note that bears have been known to attack and eat livestock, deer and pets so letting “Fido” out to chase one away isn’t always the smartest move. Just remember to be safe out there.

Pattern

There are only 2 similar pattern from the past 1 year plus candles.
1) Around Feb 12 which, the following week gap up and weekly candle was bullish.
2) Around Jul 11 which gap down and weekly candle was bearish.

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily

At resistance level with spurge in volume on daily candles. On the weekly candles, volume are dipping to support the bullishness.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
I m beginning to lose interest on this section as people are probably just gonna react to the economic data for that particular day and forget all about it the next session. Everything probably factor in the price already. Market is irrational.

Chinese new year seem to come fast and go fast. Without knowing we are into the mid month of Feb 2013. And we have about 10 months left for the year, what have I achieve for the past 1 and a half months ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.