Market Opinion - Trading Week #9

Market Opinion for Trading Week 11 Mar ~  15 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed around 155.5. Movement within $3 and break slightly below 149. Recall what the big boys might do in last week post ?

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $

Accuracy : 5/6  (/pat on the shoulder, hmm hmm I m getting good at reading this =D )

SPY - Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bulls are being pushed and test at the support of 149. Look at how fast it came down. Remember a quote by mentioned by Conrad, "bulls climb up the stairs & bears jump out of the window", it takes 1 session for the bears to bring down the price giving the bulls a really good push. After that the bulls work so hard to climb up for the next 3 sessions with little commitment. The candles body are really little. And on the last session, bears decided it's time to tickle the bulls again at the start of the bell and watch how the bulls climb it back again. Aren't bears really playful. The bulls are working hard to protect the 149/150 mark and probably not going to give in easily. The bears gonna keep toying with the bulls till they are exhausted and eventually gave in. Lets see how many long it will take. another 3 daily session maybe ?

SPY - Weekly Patterns

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern (Green) appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.
Possible ascending wedge

There are only 1 similar candle pattern from the past 2 year candles.
1) Around Dec 11 which, the following week gap down and weekly candle closed lower.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? People might be wary of last week wash and waiting to see mindset. It's probably gonna be similar wash like last week except that it's the reverse way. Hmm maybe just above 153/154 to trigger the stops $ KaChing $

Technical

Daily candles are moving very closely towards SMA 20

Will it breakout earlier and go test the SMA 50 for support ?

No go zone
ATR+-3 which is anything not higher than 155 and anything not lower than 148

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway to the down side