Market Opinion - Trading Week #33

Market Opinion for Trading Week 26 Aug ~ 24 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.62 up from previous week of 165.83

VIX hit 16.

Accuracy : 11/22

Market

167 will be a strong resistance base on the price volume. If it manage to break above and stay above 167. It should attract more bulls.

Commodities

Sectors

9 Sectors - 3 Months

9 Sectors - Weekly

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Weekly volume much lower than average.

Economic Data

Not much on Jackson hole meeting.

Earnings
Earnings highlights this week :

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF)
Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB)
Salesforce.com (NYSE: CRM)
Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF-B)
Joy Global (NYSE: JOY)
Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ: SAFM)

Technical

ATR : 1.34 from 1.3 last week

Avg Volume : 128.97M from 132.75M
Volume : 79,197,200

Zone Probability

Range : 163.7 to 170.60

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Bulls pushing back to hold the price or short seller covering. Bears are taking a short breather.

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !
Volumes are dropping. Probably more sitting on the sideline watching.


Opinion of the Market next week : sideways with little upside

Google Adsense Cheque

Towards the end of Jul, I made a deposit of google adsense cheque payment. But after almost 3 weeks, I have yet to receive the credit transaction on my bank account.

Call up the bank and found out that google adsense cheque take 3weeks or more to clear and charge a $10 or 0.125% of amt transaction fee if it's in USD payment.

To resolve that, choose either 1 or 2

1) Change the payment to western union
2) change your payment currency to the local currency

Market Opinion - Trading Week #32

Market Opinion for Trading Week 19 Aug ~ 23 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 165.83 - down from the previous week of 169.31 

Yes it did but not much downside, this may attract the short seller to come in to continue some short dip.

They came and its gotten volatile with VIX picking up.  

Accuracy : 11/21

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

No data on Mon and Tue. Majority of the market probably waiting for fomc minutes to do short term reaction.

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

ATR : 1.3

Volume : 132.75M

No go zone
Anything not higher than 172.33 and not lower than 159.33

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?
Bears are in control and the bulls are waiting...

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

While most of the ppl are having bearish sentiment for one of the most bearish month of the year. Big boys probably do more whipsaw movement between 168 to 171.

The price tanked and now the bulls commitment gonna be test at 165. Which could be the pivot point to do the whipsaw ranges for big boys.


KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : sideways to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #31

Market Opinion for Trading Week 12 Aug ~ 16 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 169.31 down from the previous week of 170.95.

Is it a true breakout, will it hold at 170 which is a big round number ? Or it's a wash and rinse on the top side.

Yes it did but not much downside, this may attract the short seller to come in to continue some short dip.

Accuracy : 10/20

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  ! While most of the ppl are having bearish sentiment for one of the most bearish month of the year. Big boys probably do more whipsaw movement between 168 to 171.



KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #30

Market Opinion for Trading Week 5 Aug ~ 9 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 days

Week closed at 170.95 up from previous week of 169.11.

Is it a true breakout, will it hold at 170 which is a big round number ? Or it's a wash and rinse on the top side.

Accuracy : 9/19

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

SPY - Daily

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  ! People looking to buy at support of 170, push it up a little before rinsing down to collect the stops.

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #29

Market Opinion for Trading Week 29 Jul ~ 2 Aug 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 169.11, up from previous week of 169.17.

Not much move at all as if all the traders/investors went for their summer break.

Accuracy : 9/18

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

SPY - Daily

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology

SPY - Weekly

SPY - Monthly

Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle
Tobacco Trade

Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : flat to the downside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #28

Market Opinion for Trading Week 22 Jul ~ 26 Jul 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 169.17, up from previous week of 167.51

Accuracy : 9/17

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #25

Market Opinion for Trading Week 1 Jul ~ 4 Jul 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 160.42, up from previous week of 159.07.

Accuracy : 8/16

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #24

Market Opinion for Trading Week 24 Jun ~ 28 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 159.07, down from previous week of 163.18.

Almost 2.5% wash down on 20 Jun after fomc minutes of possible tapering of QE

Accuracy : 8/15

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #23

Market Opinion for Trading Week 17 Jun ~ 21 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 163.18, down from previous week of 164.8.  

Accuracy : 8/14

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #22

Market Opinion for Trading Week 10 Jun ~ 14 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 8/13

Market Opinion : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #21

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Jun ~ 7 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 7/12

Market Opinion : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #20

Market Opinion for Trading Week 27 May ~ 31 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Down