Market Opinion - Trading Week #11

Market Opinion for Trading Week 25 Mar ~ 29 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 days

Recap on last week

Week closed around 155.32. Does it show greediness?  Well it look pretty obvious and break new highs 156.8 on Thurs session. Follow by a profit taking session right before the week closed. Volume picked up on the last trading day despite the sharp sell off at the beginning of the session, bulls doesn't want to give in below 155.50. This might be very probable another trap set to make the cow fat before slaughtering it like a 

transgenic animal. Remind me of a video I came across in the past.

Accuracy : 5/7  

SPY - Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Candle body is much shorter with equal upper shadow. Seem like bears are setting a resistance around 155.50. And the bulls are doing their best to hold there. New high and people are once again waiting and sitting on the sides. Those who ride on the commitment last week might want to take some profit just in case.

SPY - Weekly Patterns

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern (Green) appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.
Possible ascending wedge

There are only 1 similar candle pattern from the past 2 year candles.
1) Around Dec 11 which, the following week gap down and weekly candle closed lower.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? People might want to profit take make them greedy and stay on. So lets wash and rinse both sides. Push it up to break new high again, keep the greed high and collect stops from those who short. Thereafter reverse it and send it out in a hurry to catch those greedy one. $ KaChing $

Technical

Daily candles are moving very closely towards SMA 20

Will it breakout earlier and go test the SMA 50 for support ?

No go zone
Anything not higher than 160 and anything not lower than 150

Opinion of the Market next week : flat and slightly bearish

Market Opinion - Trading Week #10

Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 Mar ~ 22 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 days

Recap on last week

Week closed around 155.32. Does it show greediness?  Well it look pretty obvious and break new highs 156.8 on Thurs session. Follow by a profit taking session right before the week closed. Volume picked up on the last trading day despite the sharp sell off at the beginning of the session, bulls doesn't want to give in below 155.50. This might be very probable another trap set to make the cow fat before slaughtering it like a 

transgenic animal. Remind me of a video I came across in the past.

Accuracy : 5/7  

SPY - Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Candle body is much shorter with equal upper shadow. Seem like bears are setting a resistance around 155.50. And the bulls are doing their best to hold there. New high and people are once again waiting and sitting on the sides. Those who ride on the commitment last week might want to take some profit just in case.

SPY - Weekly Patterns

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern (Green) appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.
Possible ascending wedge

There are only 1 similar candle pattern from the past 2 year candles.
1) Around Dec 11 which, the following week gap down and weekly candle closed lower.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? People might want to profit take make them greedy and stay on. So lets wash and rinse both sides. Push it up to break new high again, keep the greed high and collect stops from those who short. Thereafter reverse it and send it out in a hurry to catch those greedy one. $ KaChing $

Technical

Daily candles are moving very closely towards SMA 20

Will it breakout earlier and go test the SMA 50 for support ?

No go zone
Anything not higher than 160 and anything not lower than 150

Opinion of the Market next week : flat and slightly bearish

Market Opinion - Trading Week #9

Market Opinion for Trading Week 11 Mar ~  15 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed around 155.5. Movement within $3 and break slightly below 149. Recall what the big boys might do in last week post ?

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $

Accuracy : 5/6  (/pat on the shoulder, hmm hmm I m getting good at reading this =D )

SPY - Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bulls are being pushed and test at the support of 149. Look at how fast it came down. Remember a quote by mentioned by Conrad, "bulls climb up the stairs & bears jump out of the window", it takes 1 session for the bears to bring down the price giving the bulls a really good push. After that the bulls work so hard to climb up for the next 3 sessions with little commitment. The candles body are really little. And on the last session, bears decided it's time to tickle the bulls again at the start of the bell and watch how the bulls climb it back again. Aren't bears really playful. The bulls are working hard to protect the 149/150 mark and probably not going to give in easily. The bears gonna keep toying with the bulls till they are exhausted and eventually gave in. Lets see how many long it will take. another 3 daily session maybe ?

SPY - Weekly Patterns

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern (Green) appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.
Possible ascending wedge

There are only 1 similar candle pattern from the past 2 year candles.
1) Around Dec 11 which, the following week gap down and weekly candle closed lower.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? People might be wary of last week wash and waiting to see mindset. It's probably gonna be similar wash like last week except that it's the reverse way. Hmm maybe just above 153/154 to trigger the stops $ KaChing $

Technical

Daily candles are moving very closely towards SMA 20

Will it breakout earlier and go test the SMA 50 for support ?

No go zone
ATR+-3 which is anything not higher than 155 and anything not lower than 148

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway to the down side

Market Opinion - Trading Week #8

Market Opinion for Trading Week 4 Mar ~ 8 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed around 152. Movement within $3 and break slightly below 149. Recall what the big boys might do in last week post ?

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $

Accuracy : 5/6  (/pat on the shoulder, hmm hmm I m getting good at reading this =D )

SPY - Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bulls are being pushed and test at the support of 149. Look at how fast it came down. Remember a quote by mentioned by Conrad, "bulls climb up the stairs & bears jump out of the window", it takes 1 session for the bears to bring down the price giving the bulls a really good push. After that the bulls work so hard to climb up for the next 3 sessions with little commitment. The candles body are really little. And on the last session, bears decided it's time to tickle the bulls again at the start of the bell and watch how the bulls climb it back again. Aren't bears really playful. The bulls are working hard to protect the 149/150 mark and probably not going to give in easily. The bears gonna keep toying with the bulls till they are exhausted and eventually gave in. Lets see how many long it will take. another 3 daily session maybe ?

SPY - Weekly Patterns

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern (Green) appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.
Possible ascending wedge

There are only 1 similar candle pattern from the past 2 year candles.
1) Around Dec 11 which, the following week gap down and weekly candle closed lower.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? People might be wary of last week wash and waiting to see mindset. It's probably gonna be similar wash like last week except that it's the reverse way. Hmm maybe just above 153/154 to trigger the stops $ KaChing $

Technical

Daily candles are moving very closely towards SMA 20

Will it breakout earlier and go test the SMA 50 for support ?

No go zone
ATR+-3 which is anything not higher than 155 and anything not lower than 148

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway to the down side

Market Opinion - Trading Week #7

Market Opinion for Trading Week 25 ~ 1 Mar 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Still holding above 151 at week close and above 150 at lowest. 

Accuracy : 4/5 80% (well missed it by alittle could have the winning steak arghh haha)

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bulls are being pushed and test at the support of 150. And they are not going to give in easily. But they lack commitment to push it up at the end of the trading week.

Bears might take advantage of this as bulls are giving signal of weakness and lack of commitment. Most of the people are gonna stay on the side waiting for a couple of big bulls or bears to take the lead.

Pattern

Eillot wave pattern appearing with 5th wave topping out before the reversal.

There are only 2 similar pattern from the past 1 year plus candles.
1) Around Mar 12 which, the following week gap up and weekly candle closed higher.
2) Around Sep 12 which gap down and weekly candle closed lower.

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $

Technical

Last Bullish candle lack commitment from the volume and it's floating just above the SMA20. Daily candles are falling down on the SMA 20 or rather getting closer and one session break below last week.

150 seem to be a good support with quite a couple of contact points. Will it hold the bears coming out from hibernation ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little down side to test the support

Market Opinion - Trading Week #6

Market Opinion for Trading Week 18 ~ 22 Feb 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Man I missed last week's market opinion. I was in post CNY mood and totally forgotten about it until tue/wed. Paid up my bet to Jason, oh I have not collected the $2 he owe. By the way, Jason if you are reading this, time to pay up wahaha. 

Now for last week market, seem pretty flat and holding well at the support around 151.

Accuracy : 4/4 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

SPY -  Weekly

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

The bears are giving a little more effort for the push now. Some maybe came out of hibernation earlier to hunt for food =)

And the bull want to hold their defense line on the range around 151. I would say 150 looks like a very good support line.Big whole round number. The bulls aren't going to give in easily on this defense line.

Bear might want to push a little but not gonna use too much effort know bulls will hold strong around 150. They probably gonna tease them around this range.

I m gonna be a playful bear this week. It's probably gonna be flat as lots of people gonna sit on the fence to "see how it goes". And form a little W slanted and falling on the right side.


Bears that are coming out of hibernation early ...

Article from 2012 : The black bears are coming out of hibernation weeks earlier than normal this year due to our incredibly mild winter and even warmer spring. This means that they are incredibly hungry and looking for easy meals since some plants that they normally consume have not emerged yet. Bears have an incredible sense of smell so trashcans and bird feeders are easy targets for them. It’s important to only bring out your trashcans only on collection days if possible and store them in areas not easy accessible to a bear like locked garages or sheds. Bears have been known to smash windows or knock down screen doors to get to available food when desperate. Bird feeders should be removed from springtime to around November, as birds will have plenty of food options provided by nature. It is also important to note that bears have been known to attack and eat livestock, deer and pets so letting “Fido” out to chase one away isn’t always the smartest move. Just remember to be safe out there.

Pattern

There are only 2 similar pattern from the past 1 year plus candles.
1) Around Feb 12 which, the following week gap up and weekly candle was bullish.
2) Around Jul 11 which gap down and weekly candle was bearish.

After seeing this, here comes the question, if i m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Most people would see this as sign of weakening or even reversal. I would rinse and wash before pushing the price up again. Hmm maybe just below 150 to trigger all the stops $ KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily

At resistance level with spurge in volume on daily candles. On the weekly candles, volume are dipping to support the bullishness.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
I m beginning to lose interest on this section as people are probably just gonna react to the economic data for that particular day and forget all about it the next session. Everything probably factor in the price already. Market is irrational.

Chinese new year seem to come fast and go fast. Without knowing we are into the mid month of Feb 2013. And we have about 10 months left for the year, what have I achieve for the past 1 and a half months ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

Market Opinion - Trading Week #4

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 4 Feb to 8 Feb 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

SPY - 5 Days Candles

Recap on last week

It's not exactly like a 'V' shape as expected an ugly shaped 'V' formed later part of the week. Seem like the support ard 150 is holding.

Accuracy : 3/3 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

SPY - Weekly Candles

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

The bears are starting to give a little stretch. And it's probably little trickle to the bull to make them work harder =) or setting up the stage for the greedy bulls to jump in. Apparently, bulls are really determine type, they just don't like to be push. Sense the good commitment from the bulls. They probably won't feel a pinch with just a little tickle from the bear.

It's probably a tick shape for this week. I m a shy bull for next week.
It just stuck me suddenly, what's the behaviour pattern of a bull > from wikipedia > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bull

Bulls are much more muscular than cows, with thicker bones, larger feet, a very muscular neck, and a large, bony head with protective ridges over the eyes. These features assist bulls in fighting for domination over a herd, giving the winner superior access to cows for reproduction.^[4] 

Hmm bulls are stubborn animal. It probably take quite an extend effort for the bull to move itself to charge towards something. But once it start, it's not easy to stop it. Are we seeing something about the bull on the market now.

So how to stop a charging bull ? http://www.wikihow.com/Avoid/Escape-a-Bull
By creating fear(need a big Bear to do that =) ) or side step and run towards the opposite direction.

Technical
Break high again. And hitting channel resistance.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Only 3 major economic data release this week. That's good.

It's the Chinese new year week. Everyone is doing their last minutes shopping and not forgetting the reunion dinner and yu sheng. And the never ending queues at Bak Kwa stores.

It's probably good pattern to trade Chinese restaurant chain stock during this period. And maybe the pork belly future

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pork_belly


Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

Market Opinion - Trading Week #3

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 28 Jan to 1 Feb 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

Recap on last week

One of the biggest uproar last week was AAPL earnings, on Wed it close around 515 and open with HUGE GAP, 458 almost a 10% drop. OUCH 

Check this brief notes on how AAPL actually perform. They are a good company and products are lovely. I used to be an iphone user and their macbook air is in my wishlist =) its so pretty.

 In its Q1 2013 earnings report, Apple posted record quarterly revenue of $54.5 billion and a record net profit for the quarter of $13.1 billion on $13.81 per diluted share. Based on an independent consensus from 67 different analysts, Wall Street had expected $58.84 billion in revenue on $15.11 earnings per diluted share.

Regarding unit estimates, Wall Street’s consensus expected Apple to have sold roughly 50 million iPhones and 23 million iPads; in the final earnings report, however, Apple reported selling only 47.8 million iPhones and 22.9 million iPads.

“We’re pleased to have generated over $23 billion in cash flow from operations during the quarter,” Peter Oppenheimer, Apple’s CFO, said. “We established new all-time quarterly records for iPhone and iPad sales, significantly broadened our ecosystem and generated Apple’s highest quarterly revenue ever.”

How the hell the stock got beaten so badly , just because the analyst have higher expectation. From my personal opinion, I m happy =) its a opportunity to pick up some apples just wait for it to find the next support. People probably got shocked on the gap and reacted and market maker or big boys might want to leverage on this opportunity to create a short term fear, causing people to panic sell (imagine you're holding it and it drop 10% in 1 day) SELLLLLLLLLL thereafter after helping the market maker or big boys to make the counter even cheaper to buy to make a profit.

Now back to the market, well it was up Up UP week. Bingo for me !  It was moving with momentum until it reached the 150 mark big whole number and break above it. I thought it would take sometime for it to break above. 

Accuracy : 2/2 100% (still 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ? Not much sign of bearishness yet. People can really get greedy. Plus it just break above the 150 mark. It's probably a V shape for next week. Bulls taking a breather by taking off some profit making it like a test of support on 150 mark before the bull continue to charge again. I m conservative bullish for next week.

Technical
Similar to previous post except that it break the high again. Reaching the channel resistance. I was doubtful in the feeling of candle but the technical aspect gave me a boost in confidence.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Yucks almost some important data releasing every single day. Its confusing when data are release and we are at the in between of either a support/resistance line. Probably volatile

Chinese new year coming in close. People are still on buying spree and probably lots of last minute shoppers, I guess it's still good for the overall economic till end of CNY. I wonder if for the past 20 years, 2 week before and 1 week after chinese new year, is there a pattern in the market ?

Opinion of the Market next week : sideway with little up side.

Market Opinion - Trading Week #2

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 21 Jan to 25 Jan 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Last week was fun =), went to thailand, bangkok first holiday trip for 2013 and 3 more holiday destinations to  accomplish this year !

Jan 13 : Thailand

May 13 : Taiwan (next)

Sep 13 : China

Dec 13 : Japan

 I m so inspired by the lifestyle of traveling and trading here and there during the trip to make up some of the shopping expenses =) and ultimately entire trip paid for from trading with spare to invest. As mentioned in my previous market opinion post - sideways to the upside, I was very near ^ ^ looking at the above. It was moving sideways to a little upside and once it break the 147 mark, woola people on the sideline gain confident or should I says become greedy, thinking phew we past the safety line and its time to party. 

Accuracy : 1/1 100% (that so nice 100%, wahhahaha let's see if i can hit 100% for 5 consecutive weeks)

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ? I would say still bullish, no sign for strong bears yet. Since it breakout the 52 week high, people who have been on the sideline waiting might turn greedy and its time to jump, buying the high. Like a pyramid effect, people who went in first, waiting for greedy money to push the high to a higher high and take their profit and run. And those who run too late, it's payment for your lesson. There will also be another group where it's at the high, they wanted to wait but it move higher. Fear of missing out the ride, they gave in to temptation and got caught in the higher high wave.

It probably come back to test  the support line in the next few session.

Technical
Similar to previous post except that it break the 52 week high. Or breaking the ascending triangle pattern earlier.


What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
21 Jan - Bank holiday, market closed.
Not too much economic data which is good for the market and price. Everything is factor into the price. Proper sense of the market without much confusion.

Remember the scenario, if you are a market maker for SPY,

"Remind me of another lesson, 95% of the world money is hold by the top 1%. And price move in according to how the money flow. So if you are the top 1 % how would you put your money knowing that the market can move up, down or sideways. If you are a market maker of SPY, how would you set the traps ?
1) make it appear that the counter is hitting resistance, loose steam and attract people shorting follow by a reversal push triggering their stops
2) make it appear that the counter is going strong breaking the 52 resistance, attracting people who want to buy it higher before reversing it to trigger stops probably just below the latest support level. After that sending it back again for a bullish Jan
3) Combination of 1 + 2"

Looks like scenario 2 is on play, let's wait a few more session to see the full plot.

Volumes might pick up as there's not too much economic data plus again Chinese new year coming in a few weeks. People are still on buying spree, I wonder if US celebrate Chinese new year or there's a public holiday in the state during Chinese New Year.

People, are looking for new furniture big tickets items), new clothing  to welcome the new year. Hong bao for younger generation as a blessing which in turn the receiver will spend it. Though most of the consumers are chinese, they buy products/services from all over the world. This encourage business in general.

Like for myself, my family is looking to get a new piece of LED Smart TV which can easily cost a few thousands.

Opinion of the Market next week : Up and sideways

Market Opinion - Trading Week #1

Market Opinion for the Trading Week 14 Jan to 18 Jan 2013

Have fun trading : interesting, amusing or entertaining accounts on trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY

SPY closed higher up with volume dipping a little.

Well I can't remember the candle stick pattern but I think there's a simple way to do what Leon has taught us during the Coach Tutelage - feel the candle. And the interesting yet SIMPLE exercise of 'feel the candle'. He showed us a combination of 3 candles and uses mass market reaction to do a poll.

ie the following :
After knowing how to read a bullish or bearish candle, you can use your own psychology to determine the likelihood of the trend ahead.

What's the likelihood of the candles moving up, down or sideway next ?

Looking at this week closing, the bulls have push pretty hard giving the bears no room. It probably still got some strength to go ahead before the bears wake up.

On the technical, it's closing in to it's 52 weeks high, probably still some little room to test the resistance if it will garner enough strength to push thru next week.

A possible double top or a cup and out of shape cup and handle/ascending triangle breaking out. January tend to be bullish till around Mar period.

Spotting pattern of similar candles, there are 4 near to similar pattern whereby bullish trend with a candle with no or little top shadow. Out of the 4, 2 of them are bullish after that.

Pattern of the month compare to previous year, bullish upside.

From a psychology point, most of us know and can see that the counter is hitting on a resistance of 52 week high and support at 145. Thus most people would be in the state of 'see how' and not doing anything thus we might be seeing lower volume and sideway movement.

From macroeconomic point, the fiscal cliff effect is delayed till feb 13 and with the festive mood (Chinese New Year coming too =) and valentine ) // To avoid the possible high tax, probably more people would be putting their money into equity or investment instrument.

What's ahead for next week ?
Economic events
Fed Chairman speaking on mon with Retail sales report, building permits and unemployment claims - a heavy reports week which might further confuse the people out there. //remind me of this quote : "everything has been factor into the price." This news/reports probably is there to swayed or confuse people.

Remind me of another lesson, 95% of the world money is hold by the top 1%. And price move in according to how the money flow. So if you are the top 1 % how would you put your money knowing that the market can move up, down or sideway. If you are a market maker of SPY, how would you set the traps ?
1) make it appear that the counter is hitting resistance, loose steam and attract people shorting follow by a reversal push triggering their stops
2) make it appear that the counter is going strong breaking the 52 resistance, attracting people who want to buy it higher before reversing it to trigger stops probably just below the latest support level. After that sending it back again for a bullish Jan
3) Combination of 1 + 2

Opinion of the Market next week : Sideway to the upside