Market Opinion - Trading Week #24

Market Opinion for Trading Week 24 Jun ~ 28 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 159.07, down from previous week of 163.18.

Almost 2.5% wash down on 20 Jun after fomc minutes of possible tapering of QE

Accuracy : 8/15

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #23

Market Opinion for Trading Week 17 Jun ~ 21 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

SPY - 5 Days

Week closed at 163.18, down from previous week of 164.8.  

Accuracy : 8/14

Market

Commodities

Sectors

Currency

Bonds

NYSE Volume

Economic Data

Earnings
Earnings this week :

Technical

New high and in no man land.

ATR :

Volume :

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Pattern

Season and Cycle


Scenario
If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

KaChing $



Opinion of the Market next week : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #22

Market Opinion for Trading Week 10 Jun ~ 14 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 8/13

Market Opinion : Up

Market Opinion - Trading Week #21

Market Opinion for Trading Week 3 Jun ~ 7 Jun 2013

Have fun trading !~

Accuracy : 7/12

Market Opinion : Down

Market Opinion - Trading Week #20

Market Opinion for Trading Week 27 May ~ 31 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Down

Copy - Could be better than dropbox

This morning I was introduce to this new online storage service or cloud storage/file sharing service that's is similar to dropbox by my co-worker.

Personally I have been using dropbox for quite sometime and i would say I m a pretty satisfy user. Dropbox initially offering for new user is 2GB and if you complete their 'quest' of tweeting, installing and blah blah you get additional space.

It's useful to have a common folder that sync all your files that you want across multiple platform and PC/laptop in home, office, mobile. But the space really is a constraint after some time. There's also referral bonus storage of 500mb for dropbox for every friend whom got referral, register and install the client. Luckily for me, I change to Samsung Galaxy Note 2 this year and got this free 50GB ! free for 2 yrs. YEAH 50 GB that's hell lots of storage space. No more thinking if I should put this in or alot.

I was reluctant to look at 'Copy' initially as I already have the 50GB but I decided to do so,
1) I have friends/co worker whom doesn't have the 50GB bonus from phone, and the 2GB -5GB from dropbox is just too little.
2) Though dropbox have their referral bonus, but hey 500MB per referral from 'dropbox' compare to 5GB per referral from 'Copy', you do the maths.
3) Dropbox have a upper capped on the referral, during the start-up phase of copy, it seem like there's no restriction yet. Maybe I can get more than 50GB, maybe 100GB with no time limit =)

So do us both a favour and it's a win win for both of us by using my invitation code to 'Copy'
https://copy.com?r=Q2qAat

Market Opinion - Trading Week #19

Market Opinion for Trading Week 20 May ~ 24 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 166.94, up from previous week of 163.4. Breaking new high again. 

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Short seller got hit pretty badly for the past few days and probably cut lose by last week. 

Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

Something came to my mind, what if the wall street bull drank red bull ?

Wall street bull

Redbull give you wings

Wings

What you get ?

 or it could be ?

Accuracy : 6/11

SPY - Weekly Candle

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Full bull, masses are probably jumping on the wagon. Hardly any sign of bear.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 3 similar pattern in the past 2 year, no lower shadow with a long bullish body, almost no upper shadow. Both follow up by a little upside

Earnings

Is S&P500 overvalue ?

On the one hand, the index is now trading above both the 5-year (12.9) and 10-year average P/E ratios. On the other hand, it is still trading below the 15-year average P/E ratio (16.5), and is not close to the peak P/E ratio of 25 recorded in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.

Of the 463 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 70% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is in-line with the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.17.13

Earnings this week : MRK, HD. HPQ, BA, TGT, ABT, GME, ANF


If you're the big boys, what would you do to make more profit  !

Looks like the masses are reacting, lets give it a little more time to feed bull before slaughtering it. KaChing $


Technical

SPY - Daily Candle

New high and in no man land.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 166.94+2=169 and anything not lower than 163-2=161

Opinion of the Market next week : Bullish upside

Market Opinion - Trading Week #18

Market Opinion for Trading Week 13 May ~ 17 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 Days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 163.41, up from previous week of 161.37. With a range of almost 2 dollars.

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Double rinse and wash, make it look like its coming down but not so soon yet. KaChing $

Seem like it's hitting resistance at 163.5. Short seller are getting squeeze, waiting for the Sell in May and go away to happen but it's just not happening and going against =). Once again market are irrational and when most of the people out there are waiting for the common belief to happen, it just won't show up and will catch you when you least expect it.

I m reminded of the portfolio pumping, did it happen last week or its gonna be this week.

Candles are very close to SMA lines, on Fri, SMA50 and 100 are below 200 and candles barely floating above SMA200 line. 

Accuracy : 5/10

SPY - Weekly Candlestick

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Bullish candle no sign of weakness, full bull with lesser commitment than last week when you compare the body size.

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Pattern

Only 2 similar pattern in the past 2 year, flat no lower shadow with a bullish body and tiny upper shadow head. Both follow up a short consolidation before making the big move. And both went upwards after the consolidation.

Earnings

Of the 404 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 72% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is slightly above the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

Source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.3.13#.UYe-oLX-GbE

Earnings this week : KO, BAX, A, WMT

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Short seller whom got tested by the bullish movement last week might have stop out and close off their short position. Some might be bitten and taken a step to watch on the side while some will enter again thinking that there's only so much it can go up. Remember the "Double rinse and wash", make it looks like its coming down and set a trap for the shortie to trigger the stop before the Sell in May and Go Away start. KaChing $

Technical

SPY - Daily Candle Technical Analysis

Resistance at 165 and support at 160. Break above rising wedge or from another perspective of where you draw the top line, it might still be a rising wedge which is a reversal pattern to the downside.

From Conrad's blog on May Trivia

May Trivia

• The first two days of May are the month’s most bullish days
• The next three days are the most bearish
• The second week of May tends to be more bearish than the first
• The Friday (10 May) before Mother’s Day (Sunday 12 May) has been up on the DOW 11 of the last 18
• Expiration week tends to be a little bullish
• The Monday (13 May) after Mother’s Day has been up on the DOW 14 of the last 18
• Monday (13 May) before May Expiration has seen the DOW gain 20 of the last 25
• May Expiration Friday (17 May) has been down on the DOW 14 of the last 23
• The week after Expiration Friday tends to be bearish
• Friday (24 May) before Memorial Day (Monday 27 May) has seen the DOW go down 7 of the last 10
• Monday 27 May is Memorial Day – Markets are closed
• The day after Memorial Day (Tuesday 28 May) has been up on the DOW 18 of the last 26
• May tends to end well but has been down on the DOW 9 of the last 16

Commodities

• Oil tops out in May and starts a downtrend
• Nat Gas also tops out but tends to consolidate in May
• Gold continues its weakness
• Silver tends to peak and reverse in Mid May
• Copper usually makes a correction in the middle of the month
• Soya tends to peak and start declining
• Wheat continues its weakness
• Corn consolidates in a sideways fashion
• Cocoa also consolidates
• Coffee weakens
• Sugar consolidates at the lows

No go zone
Anything not higher than 163+2=165 and anything not lower than 158-2=156

Opinion of the Market next week : Bullish Flat

Market Opinion - Trading Week #17

Market Opinion for Trading Week 6 May ~ 10 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

Recap on last week

Week closed at 161.37 (I'm reminded of the PHI number, [161.8] that could be the next resistance). Week open higher and close higher. Week range been around 1 to 1.5 from Mon to Thurs and a thrust upward on Fri on the 7.5% unemployment rate, which is the lowest since 2010 according to forexfactory data. 

Unemployment Rate - May 13

But wait ! Look deeper ! How true is that figure ? How did they calculate it ?

Back in the 1940s, the government defined those terms: Any paid work in the past week counts as a job. And to be counted as officially unemployed, a person must have actively looked for work some time in the past month.

Personally, I m fine with this as having a part time job there's still income for the family and pay for the bills rather than doing nothing. It can be a permanment part time job until the person find a full time job. 

Under the official definition for unemployment rate, it was 7.7% in Feb 13, called the U-3 rate, there were 12 million people who said they had looked for a job without success compared to the 155.5 million in labour force.

there were also 6.8 million people who said they wanted a job but weren’t even looking, perhaps because they were discouraged. Or maybe other hurdles, such as transportation problems or child-care duties, stood in their way.

8 million people said bad economic and business conditions limited them to part-time hours even though they preferred to work full-time.
If you count those discouraged workers and involuntary part-timers as unemployed, the unemployment rate jumps to 14.3%. The government reports this number as the U-6 rate.

Interesting read on "the real Dow" 8,800 - http://moneymorning.com/2012/09/28/the-real-dow-is-at-8800-right-now/

Source : http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-03-08/commentary/37542497_1_unemployment-rate-jobless-rate-wrong-numbers

http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/2013/02/05/u-s-unemployment-our-long-economic-nightmare-continues/

Probably just like what i mentioned last week, 

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Almost everyone out there are anticipating the sell in may and go away, I would push the counter to break above the psychology resistance of 160 zone before joining the sell in may and go away. Well at the same time I will be hedge leaning towards shorting too. KaChing $

And there we go 161 test and let see how it goes from here.  Candles are no longer hovering just above but crossing up and down the EMA50,100,200 like a bull struggling to swim

Accuracy : 5/9

SPY - Weekly Candlestick Pattern

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Almost equal length upper and lower shadow. Creating higher low and higher high compare to last week candle. Still giving us a bullish feel with strength but somehow I m still very wary about it.

Pattern

Only 1 similar pattern in the past 2 year, open higher and close higher following by a pull back.

Earnings

Of the 404 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 72% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is slightly above the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 47% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 47% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%.

Source : http://www.factset.com/insight/2013/5/earningsinsight_5.3.13#.UYe-oLX-GbE

Disney, DIS will be reporting their Q2 2013 earnings on 7 May 5pm AMC.
Ironman 3 movie and related IP & merchandises will definitely boost the earnings, will it be up to mark ?

House Party Protocol

//I really like all the series of Ironman movies and I guess the cinema probably gonna come up with a Ironman trilogy

Watch for TWX, upcoming DC Man of Steel.


As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Double rinse and wash, make it look like its coming down but not so soon yet. KaChing $

Technical

Resistance at 162 and support at 153

Next support level at 150

No go zone
Anything not higher than 158+5=163 and anything not lower than 153-5=148

Opinion of the Market next week : bearish

Market Opinion - Trading Week #16

Market Opinion for Trading Week 29 Apr ~ 3 May 2013

Have fun trading !~

SPY - 5 days

Recap on last week

Week closed at 158.24.  Week open low and close higher. Sudden drop on Tue, due to Associated Press twitter account hacked and release a tweet about white house and obama. Other than that bulls are steady climbing up but lack the drive. Seem like 160 resistant holding well for now.  Candles are hovering just above the EMA50,100,200.  Note this week we are entering the mth of may.

Accuracy : 5/8

Psychology
Check out the weekly candle stick pattern. What's your feeling of the candle ?

Almost equal length upper and lower shadow. Creating higher low and higher high compare to last week candle. Apparently either side want to give in first. One of the longer than average candle body. Giving us a bullish sign with strength but somehow I m very wary about it. Almost a consolidating pattern near the resistance zone of 160.  Be cautious of the breakup as it could come in a volatile fashion.

SPY - Weekly Pattern

Pattern

First week of May tend to be bearish base on the past 5 years data on SPY weekly candles since 2008.

4 out of the 5 first week candles of may are bearish.

Earnings started

S&P 500's Q1 2013 Results So Far

As of April 25, 271 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings and 189 beat analyst estimates, which represents a beat rate of 69.7%. In the last three quarters, the beat rate ranged from 63.3% - 64.8%.

Of the 271 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings to date for the quarter, 73% have reported earnings above estimates. This percentage is slightly above the average of 70% recorded over the past four quarters. However, only 44% of companies have reported sales above estimates. This percentage is well below the average of 52% recorded over the past four quarters. If 44% is the final percentage, it will mark the third time in the last four quarters that the percentage of companies reporting revenue above estimates finished below 50%. As a result, the revenue growth rate for the quarter has continued to decline over the past month, while the earnings growth has rebounded to the levels expected at the start of the quarter (December 31).
For the first quarter overall, the blended earnings growth rate is 2.1% this week, above last week’s growth rate of 0.3%. Upside earnings surprises reported by companies across multiple sectors were responsible for the improvement in the growth rate during the past week. All ten sectors saw an improvement in earnings growth during the week. On March 31, the Q1 earnings growth rate for the index was -0.7%. All ten sectors have witnessed an increase in earnings growth rates since that date as well, led by the Telecom Services sector.
The index is now reporting earnings growth in Q1 (2.1%). If the final number is positive, it will mark the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth for the index. Eight of the ten sectors are reporting an earnings increase for the quarter, led by the Utilities, Financials, and Telecom Services sectors. On the other hand, the Information Technology sector is reporting the lowest earnings growth. The blended revenue growth rate for the index for Q1 is -0.6%, down from an estimate of 0.4% at the end of the quarter.
Corporations and analysts are lowering earnings expectations for Q2 2013. In terms of preannouncements, 48 companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q2 2013, while 11 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. Analysts have taken down EPS estimates also, as the estimated earnings growth for Q2 2013 has dropped to 2.4% today from an expectation of 4.5% on March 31.
The upcoming week marks the final peak week of the Q1 2013 earnings season, as two Dow components and 137 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report earnings for Q1 2013 during the week.
Q1 earnings season is far from over. Facebook (FB), Comcast (CMCSA), Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) report Wednesday. Kellogg (K) and Kraft Foods (KRFT) are on tap Thursday.

As per last week,

After seeing this, here comes the question, if I m the big boys what would I do to make money ? Almost everyone out there are anticipating the sell in may and go away, I would push the counter to break above the psychology resistance of 160 zone before joining the sell in may and go away. Well at the same time I will be hedge leaning towards shorting too. KaChing $

Technical

Resistance at 160 and support at 153

Next support level at 150

No go zone
Anything not higher than 158+5=163 and anything not lower than 153-5=148

Opinion of the Market next week : bearish

PS : Last week I was reading the news on new cases of H7N9 spreading in china and taiwan. Then came a thought that people will be fearful and want to do vaccination. So did a google search and found out that GSK is one of the companies that provide the vacciantion drug.

Next I went to check on GSK chart, man I missed the boat. GSK was already running parabolic upwards. Will the trend continue ?